Winter break? No chance. Falling prices and the further lowering of remuneration announced for July will let the solar market in Germany buzz in the first half of the year. Current signs of this trend are problems with the supply of inverters, which are likely to persist at least until the end of the first quarter. But further market growth is expected for the current year as well, as was found out in a recent survey of the photovoltaics industry. Almost across the board, companies expect sales to increase at least ten to fifteen percent, while some even expect them to double. Margins, on the other hand, will become narrower. Some of the companies we interviewed, for instance the module makers Bosch Solar Energy and Sunways, and plant manufacturer Roth & Rau, largely kept a low profile. The predicted growth in output for the market as a whole varies between 2.8 and 4 gigawatts – depending on the scale of the rate reduction.
Carsten Körnig, managing director of the German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar) is optimistic. “We’re expecting total industry sales to rise from 16.2 billion euros in 2009 to 19.7 billion euros,” he says. BSW-Solar expects suppliers’ sales figures to rise from 2.3 to 2.7 billion euros, those of manufacturers from 8.1 to 9.8 billion euros, and those of distributors from 5.8 to 7.2 billion euros. The association predicts that the production of modules and solar cells in Germany will also get a move on again this year. The production of solar cells will climb to around one gigawatt (855 megawatts in 2009), and module production will rise from around 1.05 gigawatts (760 megawatts of it crystalline) to 1.25 gigawatts (915 megawatts crystalline). BSW-Solar reckons net investment by the industry will increase from 1.5 billion euros in 2009 to 1.8 billion euros this year, and expects investment in research and development to rise from 145 million to 180 million euros. It also expects another increase in jobs. “We expect the number of PV jobs in Germany will rise from 54,000 in 2009 to 56,000,” predicts Körnig.
BSW-Solar was unwilling to make any prediction of expected export earnings in 2010. According to the association, the export share of German PV suppliers in 2009 was around 80 percent, around 43 percent for the PV industry, and around 18 percent for distributors. The estimates by the inverter manufacturers, distributors and project developers who responded to the pv magazine survey are not totally consistent. Some firms, such as the project planners Colexon Energy and Phoenix Solar, expect enhanced international business, while a competitor, Sinosol Systems, expects to double its German market share.
It’s clear from the expected system prices that there won’t be another sharp drop in prices like the one in the second half of 2009. According to the companies questioned, prices will tend to adjust to the progressive reduction under the Renewable Energy Act, though it remains unclear whether they will fully cushion the impact of the rate reduction already decided. Another big unknown is the announced further rate reduction, which will probably mainly affect ground-mounted arrays. So the profitability of solar investments will certainly depend on politicians this year, for the frequently quoted grid parity of photovoltaics for domestic electricity will not be achieved in the short term, despite price reductions.

AS-Solar GmbH, Maike Koithan, marketing manager

Order Situation: “We expect an increase in sales from last year’s 125 million to 168 million euros, and an increase in systems sold from 48 megawatts to 75 megawatts.”
German market: “For us, Germany is still the most important market at 85 percent, and roof-mounted arrays, with a share of around 70 percent, are the most important segment. Overall, we expect the market to grow by 20 percent.”
Prices: “We expect a fall in system prices corresponding to the progressive reduction under the Renewable Energy Act. Over the year, there will be a slight rise.”
Delivery times: “We expect delivery times of two weeks in the first quarter, but there may be problems with the supply of inverters.”

Colexon Energy AG. Kirsten Friedrich, marketing manager

Order Situation: “We expect newly installed output to increase from 13.5 to 60 megawatts this year, and in Germany from 12.5 to 31 megawatts.”
German market: “The global share of arrays installed in Germany will amount to around 50 percent in 2010. About a third of those will be solar farms, and with those we also want to give even more importance to remediation areas. All in all, we expect 20 percent market growth in Germany.”
Prices: “We expect module prices to adapt to the reduction of the feed-in tariff. For the first quarter, we expect price reductions of approximately eleven percent for European modules and approximately two percent for Chinese Tier-1 modules. Module prices will fall by around ten to fifteen percent by the end of 2010.”
Delivery times: “We think the credit squeeze in Germany will remain in effect at least during the first half of the year, because of the anticipated reduction of the feed-in tariff.”

Energossa GmbH, Helmut Godard, managing director

Order Situation: “Business has been very good since June. We now expect installation figures to improve greatly in January, because price reductions that completely compensate for the progressive reduction are already possible now, and end users will exploit them. Uncertainties inspired by the possibility of a special progressive reduction in summer will whip up demand in the first two quarters.”
Delivery times: “Bottlenecks with modules will probably remain a thing of the past for the time being, and the specter of inverter bottlenecks will have disappeared in February at the latest.”
Wholesale service: “Service in technical and acquisition support is getting better all the time. The wholesalers unfortunately haven’t yet understood that the days have gone for purchase commitments and prepayments in the field of distribution.”

FR-Frankensolar GmbH, Jochen Schnabel, marketing manager

Order Situation: “We expect sales to increase from around 145 million euros in 2009 to between 150 to 200 million euros this year. Profits are stagnating, however, because margins are getting narrower. As for sales volume, we expect to install around 70 megawatts, as compared with 54 megawatts last year.”
German market: “We reckon to sell more than 90 percent of our products in Germany in 2010.”
Prices: “We’re assuming that system prices can’t fall as much as the feed-in tariff, because there isn’t as much room for price reductions now as there was in 2009.”
Delivery times: “Delivery times will be shorter in the first quarter, except for inverters. We sometimes have delivery times of ten to twelve weeks for those, which is very dramatic.”

Fronius International GmbH, Silke Inzinger, communications

Order Situation: “We expect to increase our sales in the field of solar electronics from 190 million euros in 2009 to 355 million euros this year. We expect an increase in sales of inverters and solar electronics from 700 megawatts to approximately 1.4 gigawatts.”
German market: “We expect to make 50 percent of our sales in Germany, and there’s a tendency for ground-mounted solar installations to lose significance. Altogether, we expect four gigawatts of newly installed capacity in Germany this year.”
Delivery times: “We expect supply problems to be resolved in the course of the second quarter. By the middle of next year we will have doubled our productive capacity to 1.4 gigawatts, because of increasing demand.”

IBC Solar AG, Norbert Hahn, sales director

Order Situation: “In the current year, we expect sales of approximately 1.1 billion euros, whereas in 2009 we made approximately 850 to 900 million euros. We can probably increase sales from 300 to 400 megawatts. The first half of the year above all will be very strong.”
German market: “For us, the German market still dominates. Nevertheless, we expect to increase the share of exports from ten to twenty percent this year, mainly in Europe. Ground-mounted arrays are likely to be less significant in Germany. Depending on the decision about the progressive reduction, we expect an increase of three to four gigawatts in Germany.”
Prices: “Module and system prices will be guided by the reduction of the feed-in tariff, especially for modules in the upper price segment, because otherwise, as the manufacturers of course know, demand will collapse. I see little scope for price reductions for cheap modules, however, because some are already being sold at dumping prices.”
Delivery times: “We’ll already be sold out of good brand modules by the end of June. I see big supply problems and also a certain competition between roof-mounted PV and large projects. For inverters, the supply problems are even more dramatic. I see a bottleneck with installations as well. Our installation firms have all manner of problems finding sufficiently qualified personnel.”

MHH Solartechnik GmbH, Günter Haug, managing director

Order Situation: “We had a double-digit upswing in sales in 2009, and our sales will probably grow strongly again in 2010. We sold arrays with a nominal output of a good 60 megawatts in Germany last year, and it will be around 100 megawatts in 2010.”
German market: “As always, Germany is our most important market by far, but our export proportion will go up from ten percent last year to twenty percent, thanks partly to our business in France. We don’t expect any big shift in the market segments in Germany, and our key customers, as always, are installers.”
Prices: “We expect module and system prices to develop more or less in line with the Renewable Energy Act, and return on capital will remain approximately as good as last year. Prices may, however, rise slightly if demand rises. In any case, prices can’t be expected to collapse again as heavily as in 2009, for manufacturers need money to be able to invest.”
Delivery times: “With modules, everything’s running as planned. We already know what monthly deliveries we’ll get in the coming year, and we still have room for additional orders. Things are more difficult with inverters. We’ve already placed orders up to the third quarter, but we don’t know yet what we’ll get in the next few weeks. Many inverter manufacturers are only working on receipt of orders at the moment, rather than according to a monthly plan, which makes our business more difficult.”

Phoenix Solar AG, Andrea Wegner, press and public relations

Order Situation: “We posted 430 to 480 million euros in revenue in 2009, and we expect strong growth in 2010 once more, and the same for installed capacity.”
German market: “Germany dominated last year, but foreign customers will play a more important role in 2010. Whether the growth of German ground-mounted arrays will take place on farmland or in remediation areas will depend on possible adjustments to the feed-in tariff and other regulations. Overall, we expect an increase of three gigawatts in Germany this year.”
Prices: “Module and system prices will be slightly below the adjustment under the Renewable Energy Act.”
Financing situation: “The requirements of the banks for providing finance for large projects remain higher than in 2007 and 2008. The level now reached will be maintained in 2010 as well.”

Sinosol Systems GmbH, Raphael Krause, board member

Order Situation: “We expect sales to rise from 122 to approximately 150 million euros in fiscal 2010.”
German market: “The proportion going to the German market will virtually double this year to around a 60 percent share of sales. More than 90 percent of our business is in ground-mounted arrays, and we still see good reserve areas on farmland. We expect an increase of up to three gigawatts in Germany in 2010.”
Prices: “Prices will fall in line with the progressive reduction under the Renewable Energy Act, and manufacturers will have to be able to swallow that; otherwise, their investors will jump ship.”
Delivery times: “We currently have delivery times of up to 14 months for inverters, but I think the situation will soon improve again.”

SMA Solar Technology AG, Volker Wasgindt, head of press and association relations

Delivery times: “Delivery times for most of the items in our product range had to be extended because of an extreme increase in demand over just a few weeks. The major cause of this situation has been bottlenecks at some of our suppliers. We’ve been able to expand our manufacturing capacity strongly again this year with our newly constructed inverter factory, which is the world’s largest, with an annual production capacity of up to four gigawatts. In addition, we’ve increased our production figures again in recent weeks. We’ll also be systematically expanding our manufacturing system in the short term to enable us to shorten delivery times markedly again in the first quarter of 2010. But we expect to standardize our inverter delivery times by the end of the first quarter.”

Sputnik Engineering GmbH, Hans-Thomas Fritzsche, managing director

Order Situation: “If the mid-year intervention in remuneration rates is moderate, I consider it highly likely that we’ll see a similarly strong first half of the year as we experienced in late 2009. Our current order book is in part sufficient to take us up to mid-year.”
German market: “As always, the German market represents the largest single market for our entire enterprise, with a share of more than 50 percent. I expect growth of more than 50 percent for SolarMax inverters in Germany. The ground-mounted solar installations segment and the larger commercial installations will have greater importance in the first half of the year.”
Prices: “Wherever we can make adjustments, we’ll put them in place at the beginning of the year.”
Delivery times: “The tremendous market demand presents a still greater challenge to the flexibility of our production process, and we’re working on it.”

Gerold Weber Solartechnik GmbH, Gerold Weber, managing director

Order Situation: “The progressive reduction announced for mid-year will give us two Christmases in 2010, with everything that goes along with that. We’ve never had this situation before.”
Prices: “The prices of the module makers have fallen by nine percent, but inverter prices, expenses and wages haven’t.”
Delivery times: “Inverter manufacturers are having production difficulties, and that could be a bottleneck.”

The two-day conference, organized by Greenpower Conferences, which took place in the Mövenpick Hotel in Istanbul, Turkey on the 10th and 11th of December, was intended to inform interested visitors about the situation and perspectives of the Turkish photovoltaics market. The first critical voices were heard early the second day. For example, Ali Yurtbil of Phoenix Solar complained that “the presentations’ content is repetitive and the figures are contradictory”.
According to Elisa Stute, who is responsible for new markets at Gehrlicher Solar, one really couldn’t learn anything new here about the Turkish solar market. “The presentations hardly ever discuss the Turkish market. That shows that there’s simply not much to report,” Stute pointed out.

A huge opportunity

All attendees, however, agreed on one thing: “Turkey has the best conditions to become one of the big players in the international photovoltaics market,” says Nikolai Dobrott, CEO at the consulting firm Apricum of Germany. “We believe that Turkey could be a very attractive market.” The high rate of insolation alone says a lot for the country. “It’s just as high here as in Spain and Greece, the European countries with the best insolation,” Dobrott explains. With an average sunshine duration of 2,640 hours per year, or 7.2 hours per day, Turkey could produce about 380 billion kilowatt-hours of solar energy annually. Until now, especially in the southern parts of the country, simple solar thermal systems to heat water have been predominant. What’s missing is an attractive policy for solar power.
The current regulation, passed in 2005, which provides 5.5 euro cents per kilowatt-hour, is simply not enough. An attractive feed-in rate would help create local demand for solar power. “And that’s a requirement for local manufacturers to set up production facilities in Turkey. Local demand and local production, in turn, are basic requirements for the creation of a successful market.” To start this process, solar policy needs to be improved as soon as possible. “Otherwise, Turkey will miss out on a huge opportunity. Right now, capacity here is at zero.”
Levent Gülbahar, business development director for Anel Group, the largest solar contractor in Turkey, agrees: “We need better policies, or else we’ll lose.” Besides high insolation, Gülbahar notes the constantly increasing demand for energy is another reason to create solar industry in Turkey. National electricity supplier EÜAS estimates that demand will double to about 440,000 gigawatt-hours by 2020. Power plant capacities will in turn need to increase two-fold, from their current 42,000 megawatts. “Already, 67 percent of energy used in Turkey is imported in the form of oil, coal, and gas. We need to rid ourselves of this dependency. And I’m fairly certain that demand will increase dramatically in the future. We’re the most energy-hungry country in Europe.” Gülbahar says his firm believes in photovoltaics and wants to set a good example. Indeed, the Anel Group recently received approval to set up a photovoltaic array in the Turkish part of Cyprus – the island’s first PV array. The company plans to work with Enerqos of Italy to begin construction of the 1.3-megawatt array in 2010. The European Union is financing the project. “We have also decided to build a production line with a capacity of 13.5 megawatts,” Gülbahar reports. Module production is to begin in 2010. “And by 2012, we plan to increase the factory’s capacity to 60 megawatts annually.”

Cautious prediction

Still, the Anel Group’s plans are a unique example “that other companies won’t follow suit until policies are more attractive,” suggests Mehmet Özer, president of Turkish photovoltaics association Güne?e. He explains his cautious prediction: “If all goes well, we could have better legislation by late 2010. Then it’ll certainly be another year before the first licenses are given out, so the first arrays will be installed in 2012 at the earliest.” According to Tanay Sidki Uyar, vice president of Eurosolar, the European coalition for renewable energy, Özer is right to have such a cautious outlook. “The public authorities and political decision-makers prefer fossil and nuclear energy. They can’t properly assess photovoltaics. They don’t understand solar electric and worry about wasting public funds,” the professor at Marmara University explains. The only thing currently known is that the rate for solar power is to be between 20 and 25 euro cents per kilowatt-hour. Information about a differentiation among array sizes has not yet been reported.
Even with a subsidy regulation, there would still be plenty of hurdles for a flourishing solar industry in Turkey, says Hans-Joachim Garms, senior advisor at Apricum. “The country’s grid is not particularly well developed. In addition, connecting PV arrays could endanger the grid’s stability. I believe that significant sums will have to be invested in improving the grid before there are no more problems.” Other concerns include licenses and land for planned solar arrays. “Arrays of 500 kilowatts or more need a license, and Turkish bureaucracy runs at a snail’s pace.
There’s also the problem of corruption,” points out Orhan Yavuz Mavioglu, an attorney at ADMD Law Office. “We have seen this with projects for telephone cables.” Purchasing land can be a downright catastrophe. He says, “You have to be especially careful when you’re buying public land.” Since there’s no ledger that notes the purpose of each individual plot of land, no one really knows which project is intended for which piece of land. “You might then invest millions installing your arrays – and suddenly someone knocks on your door with mining rights for that land.” Mavioglu therefore recommends purchasing private land. “But even then, you still can’t rule out the problem entirely.”
“We still have a long way ahead of us,” admits Mustafa Kologlu, general sales manager for Schott Cam Ticaret, Schott Solar’s Turkish subsidiary. “When people hear about solar here, they think of hot water. Turkey has one of the biggest markets for solar thermal.” He and his colleagues are currently working hard on raising awareness among political decision-makers. “This is all very new for them. Those of us from the industry know what we want. You can put it this way: there’s a picture, but we don’t yet have a frame for it, to hang it on the wall,” says Kologlu. No wonder the politicians explained away their absences from the conference by mentioning the climate conference in Copenhagen or the swine flu.

In the photovoltaics industry, the relief is palpable. Following the comfortable electoral victory in Germany of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU), in coalition with the Free Democratic Party (FDP), campaign demands to drastically cap the feed-in tariff for solar electricity via the Renewable Energy Act were in the air. Sharp media attacks, like those from news magazine, Der Spiegel, stirred up fears of severe cuts. On the other hand, moderate statements in the coalition agreement – with its commitment to solar energy as an important technology of the future – leave room for hope. Daniel Kluge of the German Renewable Energy Federation (BEE), sees the statements on photovoltaics as “good news.” Evidently, he says, there has been a “wise realization that investment security is essential for the development of an up-and-coming industry”.
But all in all, the statements of the coalition partners have remained vague, so the associations are still exercising restraint. “In the domain of energy policy, we give an overall grade of ’satisfactory’ to the coalition agreement presented by the Union and the FDP,” says Kluge. Carsten Körnig, managing director of the German Solar Industry Association (BSW), is certainly pleased with the announcement by the new government that it will be seeking discussions with the industry about adjustments to the feed-in tariff for solar electricity. He stresses, however, that there’s little room to maneuver in reducing subsidies.

No capping without analysis

Restraint is understandable, for the coalition agreement contains some arresting passages. For example, it emphasizes the need to counteract any “excess subsidies”. The starting point here is the enormous collapse in the price of solar products since 2008. Körnig warns against “confusing the price trend of recent months, caused by ruinous competitive conditions, with the possibility of changes in costs”. He points out that the feed-in rates for new arrays will already fall by up to ten percent annually under current legislation. If the rates for solar power are reduced too much, he says, there’s a danger of putting the brakes on a growing industry just before it achieves competitiveness with traditional energy sources. Kluge says the BEE also sees no “urgent need” for additional cuts, in view of the progressive reduction that has already been established.
Hans-Josef Fell, energy and technology spokesman for the “green” political party, Alliance ’90/The Greens, is less diplomatic. He demands that political structural conditions be “optimized so that the solar industry in Germany is supported and strengthened to meet the challenges from its Chinese and U.S. competitors. Anything else would be just one of history’s cruel ironies, for the Chinese and the Americans would then slice up between them one of the world’s biggest export businesses in the coming decades, even though Germany, in recent years, has spent the most money bringing the solar industry to technological maturity.” Fell says it should be remembered that, although the prices of solar products have collapsed, “labor costs of installers and the cost of many components from outside suppliers” have not. He doesn’t completely rule out an adjustment; only in the event of a rapid growth of the market, which would indeed necessitate a “precise scientific market analysis,” something the government has not yet presented.
Frank Asbeck, chairman of SolarWorld, says it should be kept in mind that Chinese photovoltaics manufacturers, in particular, benefit from government support. “China subsidizes these companies’ usage of electricity and land, even while their quality, environmental, and social standards are inadequate. Besides having only a tenth of Germany’s labor costs, they get zero-interest loans from state banks to finance production and projects.” Körnig of BSW-Solar emphasizes that any reduction in German subsidies will have to be “judged as prudently as possible,” otherwise there will be a risk of strangling the development of the technology, putting the brakes on investment, or depressing product quality. He says that given strong market growth, the industry sees some leeway for an additional reduction in tariffs of around five percent. He points out that a reduction of 20 percent has already been established by law for the next two years. “With the additional adjustment, the subsidy for the operators of new solar arrays would fall by a quarter.”

BSW proposal sets the trend

Probably with the aim of channeling the debate between the government and the industry at an early stage, BSW-Solar has gone public with a proposal for an additional reduction of the feed-in tariff for solar electricity via the Renewable Energy Act. It provides for a further 4.5 percent reduction from July 1st, 2010, followed by a further 4.5 percent reduction from January 1st, 2011, with an option for a further five percent maximum.
No official comments have yet been heard from the government camp. However, Marie-Luise Dött, environmental policy spokeswoman for the CDU/CSU in parliament, demands that electricity from photovoltaic systems becomes cheaper. “Also because the acceptance of this technology by the citizens will otherwise be lost. And we need more innovation to hold our lead in international competition.” Dött says Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen is currently working out a meeting plan for a dialogue that includes a time schedule aimed at making the necessary changes to remuneration as soon as possible. “I’ve asked the minister to involve the CDU/CSU parties in the discussions,” she says. A ministry spokesman who wishes to remain anonymous holds out the prospect of the discussions officially beginning early this year, saying that there is currently no deadline for a decision on amendments to the Renewable Energy Act and that the Environment Ministry will only make practical proposals for the future feed-in tariff for solar power on the basis of discussions.
When asked, BSW-Solar confirmed that the first exploratory talks have now been held. “We know of no government schedule,” says BSW managing director Körnig. He said he hoped that “the new government will accept our proposal for the promotion of solar power”. Many analysts who specialize in solar stocks are already taking the BSW’s proposal as the basis for their market forecasts. Ben Lynch, an expert at Bryan, Garnier & Co., for example, thinks that the additional reduction will be quite “gentle”. Katharina Cholewa, a West LB analyst, says market operators are expecting the feed-in tariff for solar power to be reduced for ground-mounted solar installations at least in the second half of the year and then for roof-mounted arrays as well in 2011.

Cuts for ground-mounted arrays

It can already be seen from the coalition agreement that cuts are mainly being considered for ground-mounted arrays. Union spokeswoman Dött says the plan is “not to hamper ground-mounted arrays, but to take more account of the justified interests of local residents”. There are increasing problems with citizen acceptance, she adds, “because arrays are frequently perceived as a blight on the landscape.” In rural areas, in particular, complaints are being raised about the loss of valuable farmland. “Farmers can’t compete any longer with the enormous leases paid for space by array operators,” says Dött. The question isn’t “whether we want ground-mounted solar installations, but where they are to be set up.” She says that possible answers will be discussed with the solar industry.
Phoenix Solar of Bavaria is an important German project planner for ground-mounted solar farms. CEO Andreas Hänel welcomes the intention of the FDP and the Union to seek discussions with industry representatives before making a decision, but he thinks it’s a mistake to speak of overpayment. Hänel says the much quoted decline in module prices by more than 30 percent in the preceding year only concerns crystalline modules, which are primarily used on roofs. By contrast, the thin film modules mainly used in ground-mounted solar farms only dropped by 15 percent in price. In view of the six to eight percent yield demanded by investors in such projects, there’s “no more room for lowering the feed-in tariff for solar power”. Such projects could then only be developed abroad, says Hänel, but that would put an enormous burden on German companies’ business. “If we have to say projects like that don’t work here in Germany, it’ll be hard to persuade customers abroad.” He thinks there will be a moderate additional reduction of the feed-in tariff for solar power in the Renewable Energy Act, and common sense will win out against the hardliners.
Matthias Fawer of Bank Sarasin cautions against this proposition. He says “enough reference projects” have been implemented in Germany to back up the advertising of ground-mounted arrays to customers abroad. Nevertheless, he also opposes the criticism of ground-mounted projects in Germany. He says a current investigation by Bank Sarasin found that remuneration via the Renewable Energy Act was mainly paid to on-roof systems. Bank Sarasin estimates their market share in Germany at more than 70 percent, but considers that the balance between price and remuneration has been disturbed by the strong growth in new installations of solar arrays in the second half of the year and by plummeting prices. The bank therefore concludes that a cut in remuneration by a further 20 percent can be expected. This cut will probably be made in 2010 for ground-mounted solar installations and in 2011 for roof-mounted arrays with an output of 100 kilowatts or more. Such a measure is admittedly hard, says Fawer, but it’s also necessary to prevent the German solar market from overheating. Germany will nevertheless continue to be an attractive solar market thanks to its maturity, speedy authorization procedure, and high installation capacity. Marie-Luise Dött of the Christian Democratic Union wants solar energy to become cheaper.

Bank Sarasin’s annual report is regarded as one of the industry’s most important indicators. The message this year is optimistic – the Basel-based private bank calls its latest market analysis, “Solar industry 2009: the first green shoots of recovery.” The global economic and financial crisis, plus changes to subsidies in Spain, made the global photovoltaics market stagnant in 2009; but in the coming year, Bank Sarasin expects newly installed output to grow by 46 percent, which corresponds to 8.5 gigawatts. “We expect worldwide demand to move ahead again on a broad front,” says head analyst Matthias Fawer.
He cites the continuing fall in costs and prices, the further intensification of efficiency and the expansion of sales channels as the main reasons for optimism. For this year and the following two years, Fawer forecasts a further reduction “in prices by around ten percent all along the solar value chain”. He points out that while Chinese manufacturers will have “clear competitive advantages” because of their lower labor costs, lower prices for both silicon and energy, and low-cost finance, European manufacturers will mainly have potential for reducing costs in materials purchasing – specifically by negotiating and renegotiating supply contracts and by making additional purchases on the spot market. They could also optimize their processes in such areas as ingot yield, wafer thickness, sawing losses, cell breakage rates, and technological innovation. He says that improving the efficiency of solar cells will play a central role. Bank Sarasin’s analysts view the selective emitter structure as particularly interesting, for it could increase the efficiency of monocrystalline cells from 16 percent to 17.5–18.5 percent.
They think, however, that the competitive situation will be more difficult for the producers of thin film modules, for their cost advantage per watt will be “greatly reduced or even totally eliminated” by the plummeting price of silicon modules. The investment required in a turnkey production line for anything between 200 to 200 million euros per 100 megawatts, is also three times greater than that for a completely vertically integrated C-Si production line (ingot, wafer, cell and module).

But Bank Sarasin’s analysts think that beefing up marketing will be more important than reducing costs. “In the current buyer’s market, stepping up marketing and sales is the main way for makers of solar cells and modules to succeed,” emphasizes Fawer. Some companies, such as First Solar, Q-Cells, Suntech Power and Solon, have already moved into the project business for this reason. A further strategy suggested by Fawer would be to focus on higher-priced niche products or on the premium segmen

The growth markets

The Basel bankers based their forecast for expanded PV output installed worldwide on a systematic comparative assessment of the attractiveness of key countries. They compared the financial attractiveness of each market – assessing market maturity, potential growth and the effectiveness of administrative procedures.
Bank Sarasin’s analysts listed Greece, Italy, and Germany as this year’s most attractive growth markets for small on-roof systems (up to three kilowatts), and Italy, Spain and South Africa for ground-mounted solar installations (one megawatt or more). Greece leads with roof-mounted arrays because of its highly favorable insolation levels, an attractive tariff system, its relaxation on capping and a proposed streamlining of authorization procedures. Italy leads the country ranking for ground-mounted arrays and is in second place for on-roof systems. Its progressive annual reduction in remuneration for solar farms is only around two percent; furthermore, insolation levels are high, authorization is quite efficient in practice, and the development capacity at 900 megawatts for small roof-mounted arrays has not yet been exhausted. The ceiling for subsidies is around 1,200 megawatts. Spain gets a good score for solar farms because of its very high insolation levels and its comparatively low progressive annual reduction in remuneration – just four to a maximum of ten percent. South Africa is an interesting newcomer to Bank Sarasin’s country rankings. Its combination of high insolation levels and a feed-in tariff of 35 euro-cents per kilowatt-hour puts this young market into third place for ground-mounted solar installations.
Germany makes it into third place for small on-roof systems and fourth place for solar farms. Tariff reductions that had already been agreed to, but are now under renewed discussion, have had a negative impact here. Still, Bank Sarasin’s analysts give positive marks to Germany’s market maturity, rapid authorization procedure, and high installation capacity.
Bank Sarasin thinks that France, Portugal, the U.S., China, India, Japan and Brazil are also important growth markets, and Fawer calculates that in the coming next years “at least ten new PV markets will arise with an annual volume of more than 500 megawatts.” As a result, global growth in photovoltaics will be put on a broader base. The reduction of costs and prices is helping photovoltaics to take giant steps towards grid parity. Within the next two years, private current consumers in Italy, California, Hawaii, Spain and Japan could be getting cheaper electricity from their own solar array than from the grid. We’ll soon see how well this optimistic assessment by the Swiss bankers actually holds up.
###MARGINALIE_BEGIN###

###MARGINALIE_END###

Kevin Reddig likes to draw a comparison to explain the complexity and technical challenges of wet wafer singulation: “Think of it as a wet book whose pages you have to separate from each other without damaging them.” Not an easy task without ripping the pages. But the comparison is not quite accurate, a fact confirmed by employees specialized in photovoltaics automation at the Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation IPA in Stuttgart, Germany.
Raw wafers, currently 160 to 180 micrometers thick, are thicker than a page of a normal book and – unlike wet paper – are not at all flexible. Also, the pages of a book are not freshly sawn and sticky with saw residue.
Wafers are created by using wire saws to slice a silicon ingot this is glued to a glass plate, which is not cut in the process. Afterwards, the raw wafers hang from the glass plate like the teeth of a comb. Between the teeth is a residue of sawdust, consisting of glycol, silicon carbide, and metal fines. The abrasive saw residue, called slurry, is ideally washed off after sawing, but such systems are far from standard equipment in many production facilities. But because the spaces in between are often as thin as the wafers themselves, cleaning is difficult.

Limits to manual labor

Even in the best case, some slurry residue mixed with water and chemicals remains after the washing. This mixture not only creates comparatively dirty working conditions, it also makes the wafers difficult to separate without damage. Only skilled workers can do it by hand, without high breakage rates. For wafers with 125 millimeter long sides, the average rate is a few percent, which explains why raw wafer singulation is still very often done by hand.
But as wafers get thinner and larger, even careful workers reach their limits. “The 125 millimeter wafers are not a problem,” Reddig says. “But at 156 millimeters you need both hands.” That affects the workers’ sense of touch and coordination; not ideal circumstances for maintaining quality work at ever increasing production rates. The result is higher breakage rates and reject material costs. The expense is unsustainable under the current cost pressure in photovoltaics, which is why wafer manufacturers worldwide now feel compelled to close the existing gap in automated production – especially in new lines.
Thus, it comes as no surprise to Christoph Jansen, an employee of Bavarian mechanical engineering company AMB of the Meyer Burger Group, that the market’s interest in singulation systems is on the rise. “This is a very hot topic. More so because there aren’t many systems on the market.” Singulation system manufacturers are working around the clock to change that – such as the five German companies considered the global leaders in the segment: ACI-ecotec, AMB Automation, Decker-Anlagenbau, Gebrüder Schmid and Rena.

Re-thinking automation

At first glance, it is hard to see why it has taken so long for automation companies to score success with their wafer-separation solutions. One reason is that they have had to re-think their approach in order to deal with conditions such as abrasive particles in a wet environment, thin and brittle silicon slices, and high adhesion forces. “There were projects aimed at reproducing hand sorting as accurately as possible,” Reddig recalls.
The result was complex machines full of sensors and actuators. They proved to be not only vulnerable to malfunctions, but also difficult to repair from the outside and complicated to maintain. Potential buyers were not interested, generally ignoring the automated alternative. To arouse interest, engineers had to rise to a new kind of challenge; instead of building technically complex machines, they had to simplify. Less was often more.
“With our machine, we’ve learned from experience what to pay attention to,” says Felix Jäger, who is responsible for photovoltaics at the manufacturing systems engineering firm ACI-ecotec in Germany’s Sankt-Georgen. “Because the environment is so aggressive, we consciously avoid exposed machinery and water-sensitive parts in the work area, and we use electronic components as sparingly as possible.” The result of the learning process looks relatively simple. But the machine works the way customers want it to, which is why the equipment built by this engineering company in the Black Forest has been one of the few systems in automated production lines since as early as 2006 in such companies as Wacker-Schott, Deutsche Solar and China’s LDK.
Watchwords like “robust and dependable” and “simple and easy to understand” were the automation company’s guiding design principles for its wafer singulation systems. For Schmid Group PV wafer product manager Reinhard Huber, there is no question: “Regardless of the complexity of the system details, the entire wafer conveyance mechanism and any parts of the machine that come into contact with water have to be easily accessible.” That is important, he says, because machine operators help decide which singulator to buy. “It’s definitely not misguided to consider the wishes of operators and develop machines that are easy to use.” Wafer manufacturers have other concerns as well. They expect three things from automated singulation: a lower breakage rate, higher throughput, and a resulting drop in production costs. To get an idea of how much costs can be brought down, consider this example: at a wafer price of five dollars and an hourly throughput of 2,000 wafers, 100 dollars (about 70 euros) can be saved for each percent of breakage reduction. Every percentage point counts – especially at high production volumes. Higher hourly throughput also positively affects cost – assuming healthy demand.
That equipment manufacturers are catering to these needs is evident not least in performance data, which are generally comparable: breakage rates well under one percent, and a maximum throughput of 3,600 wafers per hour. Christoph Jansen is convinced that manufacturers unable to keep pace with those specs have no chance on the market, “If the singulation system is a bottleneck in the line, no customer will buy it.”
However, one thing is worth bearing in mind with regard to breakage rates and throughput: performance specifications achievable in practice depend considerably on upstream and downstream process steps. For instance, breakage rates for singulation listed on specification sheets have to be thought of as subject to certain conditions. “Breakage rates increase for pre-damaged wafers. And that goes for any singulation machine, regardless of how carefully it handles wafers,” says Kay Rehberg, one of three executives of Decker-Anlagenbau in Berching, Germany, near Nuremberg.
The sawing and pre-washing process parameters set by wafer manufacturers can either increase or decrease damage to wafers prior to singulation. So far, however, no process exists to reliably determine wafer quality prior to singulation. Rehberg has called on the research institutes to step up their efforts in this field. “It would be very helpful if we knew more about this. Then we could further optimize the process.”

Other bottlenecks

Processes following singulation – fine washing and qualification – also affect throughput. It does not make much sense to singulate any faster than those two stations can work. “One wafer per second is currently the limit,” says Felix Jäger. That is how fast the inspection system at some 90 percent of manufacturers qualifies and sorts wafers at the end of the production line. The system is manufactured by Henneke Systems, another member of the Meyer Burger Group.
But the quality of the pre-wash also significantly limits throughput. Christian Nitz, an employee of equipment manufacturer Rena in the Black Forest town of Gütenbach, points to the decisive factor: complex loads known simply as “stress” in the industry. “Only good pre-washing can drastically reduce stress on the wafers during singulation.” Reiner Huber is convinced that good pre-washing can also simplify the entire wafer production line and speed up the process as a whole. “So far, no one has managed to singulate more than 3,200 wafers per hour on a single lane.” The limitation on throughput has been due to previous pre-washing methods, which take time and leave sawing residue between the wafers. “Manufacturers have had to limit line capacity to prevent processing stress, which is why we divide the wafers up among two or three lines.”

Processes vary

For the core functions of these machines – stress-free singulation and secure conveyance – all of the equipment manufacturers offer individual solutions. However, despite many small differences, all of the providers offer comparable approaches. After removing the glued-on glass, both Schmid and Decker machines take the uppermost wafer in the stack, place it on a conveyor belt and inspect it for breakage or other grounds for rejection, such as whether two wafers are stuck together. Defective wafers are immediately ejected; only the good ones stay on the conveyor belt. One characteristic of this process is the position of the wafers.
They are horizontal from when they are taken from the stack to when they are conveyed either to a buffer or a distribution system for fine washing. But while Schmidt loosens the wafer stack with a gentle flow of water and grabs the uppermost wafer with a belt, Decker uses an adhesion gripper of its own design. The gripper creates a thin cushion of water between itself and the wafer to ensure gentle conveyance.
The AMB and Rena singulation processes are also similar. Rena’s machine puts the wafers in a basket before the glass plate is removed. Brushes tightly hold the wafers to prevent them from falling out. The basket of wafers is then horizontally immersed into a water bath in the machine, so that they are next to each other rather than on top of one another. Following pre-singulation using a stream of water, a picking system lifts each wafer. Then, the fragile slices are tilted carefully into the horizontal position, inspected, and the rejects are ejected.
Rena then conveys the wafers off at a 90 degree angle and slides them into the lanes for the next processing step. A downstream distribution system fills the conveyor lines for fine washing.

Singulation from the bottom up

ACI-ecotec has its own philosophy. It uses synchronized, specially coated rollers to convey the wafers from the bottom of the stack to a metal barrier adjustable with micrometer precision, which allows only a single wafer to pass through. Mechanically defective wafers – broken, too thick, and doubled – are rejected while the rest lie flat on conveyor belts to a fine washing. The system does not monitor wafers for damage. That is left to an inspection system at the end of the line. Felix Jäger has a simple explanation for singulating wafers from the bottom, “It lets us work entirely without interruption.” However, loading stoppages in competitors’ machines are negligible, and they can also operate continuously if equipped with buffers.

Outcome unknown

Regardless of the process used, production costs can be reduced as long as the equipment works trouble-free. To save costs, the production line has to have a high annual throughput of wafers of a single type. While that limits the flexibility of the production line, automation companies still have to provide equipment with the greatest possible flexibility – sustainable equipment capable of converting to thinner or larger wafer formats in the mid-term without substantial investment. It is also important for singulation equipment to have straightforward connectivity and an adaptable controller for integration in a wide range of different production lines. Compatibility is especially important because customers increasingly want complete lines from a single source. “Then – and especially with turnkey systems – the equipment for each process step has to fit together seamlessly,” Nitz explains.
However, it is too early to conclude that only providers offering the entire process chain are ahead of the game. Rather, the need for good integration results in cooperation between equipment manufacturers. If manufacturers cooperate, the machines that win out will be those best suited to automated processes.

Seventy-seven square meters of photovoltaics adorn Karl Heinzle’s house in the Austrian town of Batschuns. Not anticipating any trouble, Heinzle had the frameless modules installed on his gabled roof, which used to hold back snow with its roof hooks. When he arrived home one sunny winter’s day, he could not believe his eyes: masses of snow were heaped in his front yard on the ruins of a collapsed stone wall. The meter-high wall, which had just been completed in the fall, was four and a half meters from the house.

Not a freak accident

“We never thought that snow could slide so far off of the house,” Heinzle says, still astounded. He was also amazed at the force with which the snow impacted below. Since then, the retiree climbs up to the roof after every new snowfall to clean it off. Elsewhere in the little town in Austria’s Vorarlberg region, recognized for its environmental management and numerous solar arrays, similar problems have cropped up. When they installed a 120 square meter array on the south face of the community college roof, workers installed a snow guard on the gutter of the roof, which has a 35 degree pitch. In the first winter, however, the snow mass broke the guard off. Just as in the case of Mr. Heinzle, the thawed snow had refrozen, causing ice to build up along the lower edge of the roof, onto which new snow continued to fall. Fortunately, nobody was injured at the school either.
Many towns in western Austria’s Vorarlberg are located in foothill regions at altitudes of 600 to 900 meters. Those regions are subject to special climatic conditions. Longstanding snow banks are becoming less frequent, but extreme weather can occur at times. Several rows of snow guards or snow hooks installed along the entire surface of roofs keep snow on the roofs pitched at 20 to 45 degrees. In these regions, it is common knowledge that snow can slide off of roofs despite such precautions. Unlike high-altitude mountainous areas, snow in the foothills melts over and over again throughout the winter whenever the sun comes out. That can send the white drifts into a slide. Obviously, it is particularly easy for snow to slide off of a smooth glass surface, such as a photovoltaic module. However, few people know that these snow avalanches can pick up tremendous speed and, depending on the height of the building, can shoot great distances.
On the contrary, solar array owners are understandably happy when the snow disappears from the roof. After all, the point is to have a snow-free array producing as much power as possible on sunny winter days. Keeping snow off the panels is the reason why many gabled roofs with solar panels do not have any snow guards at all.
On the other hand, not many people talk about the dynamics that develop when a 20 centimeter thick layer of snow builds up on a glass roof surface.
“The subject of snow does come up in discussions with customers,” says master electrician Klaus Schönetzler of Dürr, located in the Black Forest town of Nagold, Germany. But the question for Schönetzler is: how to get the snow off the array so it can produce power in the winter. Michael Rehm, an electrician in nearby Westerheim, also says, “We’ve never taken precautions against falling snow. House lots here are big, and public thoroughfares are not affected.” But shouldn’t safety precautions be taken on private property, too?

Changing safety situation

Judith Kalbasser’s installer did not inform her of the changed safety situation. “Before the installation, we didn’t worry about snow at all,” says the municipal secretary of Victorsberg, also located in the Vorarlberg region at an elevation of 880 meters. Some 20 centimeters of snow collects on Kalbasser’s 45 degree roof in the winter months. When the sun shines, the entire snow mass slides down in two or three chunks, says Kalbasser. Since she started seeing the avalanches, she has been especially careful when shoveling snow on her porch. A neighbor goes so far as to fence off the area below his solar array. “In Viktorsberg, everyone deals with the problem in their own way,” says Kalbasser. There are no PV systems on public buildings in Viktorsberg.
The same cannot be said of the Black Forest town of Freudenstadt. The city of 23,000 is 750 meters above sea level. Year after year, snow piles up along the roads and on roofs. Nevertheless, Freudenstadt’s local political establishment loves its solar power. PV systems are currently in operation on public buildings with flat roofs. Now, it is the gabled roofs’ turn.
For years, the city utility company has had its eye on the south-facing side of the Falken School as a place to build a photovoltaic array. The hitch is that Michael Kitzlinger, a structural engineer in the municipal administration, has repeatedly observed considerable volumes of snow sliding off of the photovoltaic roof of the office building where he works and other roofs in the town. The municipal building does not face a public traffic area. But at the Falken School, the situation is different. Its south-facing roof is on the playground side of the building, and the building authorities think an array would endanger the schoolchildren. In the first two rounds of planning, developers were unable to provide a satisfactory solution to the snow problem. Even a reinforced snow guard below the PV system is of little use if not enough area is available for snow to collect. “To keep the snow on the roof would require, first and foremost, somewhere for it to pile up,” says Kitzlinger. “You have to have the right geometry for the height of the snow guard and the free roof surface below the modules,” says the native of Freudenstadt.
Now, following a third attempt, the planned 26 kilowatt-peak frameless modules will finally be installed on the school roof and connected to the grid. The solution was a solar array, which only covered the upper part of the roof. Planners envision two somewhat elevated snow guards on the approximately 25 degree pitched roof. The first guard will be placed a half meter from the lower edge of the modules, and a second will be installed one and a half meters below the edge. “The first guard is placed close up to the modules to prevent snow from sliding at all,” explains Freudenstadt public utilities chief technician Rainer Schuler. If the snow mass is too great for the first guard, enough room is available between the two guards for more snow to pile up. The guards also prevent the snow from picking up speed. With four centimeters between supports, the guards are particularly stable. Both of the snow guards are anchored directly into the roof beams.
A single snow guard cannot stand up to the weather conditions in a place like Freudenstadt, Germany, even if it is designed for that purpose. A solar array in the nearby village Besenfeld clearly demonstrates that point. At an elevation of some 800 meters, snow shoots out over the guard on the 25 degree pitched roof despite the 80 centimeters that separate the lower edge of the modules from the snow guard. The operator occasionally has to close the parking lot below the array. “The project is not completely finished,” says Klaus Schönmetzler of Dürr. Schönmetzler will probably have a second snow guard installed between the rows of modules.
Dürr has come up with another interesting solution for the vocational school in Horb am Neckar, Germany. Installers placed the modules on mounting frames on the 20 degree roof, but not to improve their angle of inclination; rather, so that snow can slide off better and collect in rows. However, the situation in Horb at 450 meters elevation is not nearly as critical as it is in regions above 750 meters.

Anti-ice and snow systems

In addition to structural measures to keep snow on the roof, the problem can be approached the other way round – by concentrating on getting the snow off of the roof. While the concept of module heating is still in its infancy, it could prove an appealing way to address this problem. Power fed back into modules heats the snow from underneath, enabling a controlled avalanche. Trafficked areas below have to be blocked off during the de-icing process.
Inverter manufacturer Solutronic has had its De-Icing Box on the market for the past three years. The device enables an inverter to feed power back into modules. So far, the technology only works with crystalline modules. “Module heating could be an attractive solution,” says Michael Kitzlinger of Freudenstadt, in reference to other municipal buildings with gabled roofs. Peter Funtan of the Fraunhofer Institute in Kassel, formerly known as ISET, tests the potential and limits of module heating systems within the scope of the Multielemente project. Presently, however, neither Solutronic nor Funtan is prepared to comment on the energy balance.
Snow slides from roofs are a regional problem in foothills. “At 450 meters elevation, the situation is just barely manageable; at 740 meters it’s critical,” says Kitzlinger. But foothill regions only comprise some two percent of the German module market. Unfortunately, Kitzlinger concludes, consciousness of the problem is slow to catch on – even among solar contractors.
And depending on the microclimate, snow on photovoltaic systems behaves differently. It is all a complex interplay of roof pitch, snow volume and the weather. In Wallis, Switzerland, snow will stay on a roof with a 30 degree pitch, while in Germany’s Black Forest and Austria’s Vorarlberg, avalanches happen on 20 or 25 degree roofs. In Wallis the problem does not occur until the pitch reaches 45 degrees, but the snow on the 35 degree roof at the primary school in Vorarlberg does not pile up without a snow guard; instead sliding off straightaway in small drifts. There is thus no single solution, but many. People in foothill regions therefore neither have to abstain from using photovoltaics, nor take significant risks. Rather, both contractors and customers should be more aware of the problem.
###MARGINALIE_BEGIN###

###MARGINALIE_END###

“I have children and grandchildren. I want to make a contribution to their future and improve the environment,” says Hermann Benner, who owns a detached house in the Zehlendorf district of Berlin. A retired teacher, he had solar modules put on the roof a year ago. He beams proudly and says, “silicon is clean”. But does he know how this semiconductor gets into a module? Benner replies that, “as far as I know, silicon’s derived from sand.”
He’s right, for silicon comes from quartz sand, a silicon oxide. But until now, manufacturing cells and modules has been anything but a clean affair. The sand has to be melted into metallurgical silicon at high temperatures. Only smelting aluminum consumes more electricity. Copper and hydrochloric acid are then used to increase the purity of the raw silicon. Trichlorosilane is generated, then distilled and reduced to monosilane with hydrogen. The chemical formula of monosilane is similar to that of methane, except that the carbon atom is replaced with a silicon atom. A high amount of energy is needed to separate pure silicon from the gases. Phosphoric acid or phosphine and diborane or trimethylboron, each of them very toxic substances, are needed to dope the semiconductor with phosphorus and boron. The structuring, cleaning and metallization of the cells then follows. A little chemical factory kicks into action every time.
Basically, the solar industry is running into the same problems as the chip-making industry, manufacturers of flat panel displays and the automotive industry. The constantly increasing number of new production facilities is driving up the requirement for energy, caustic acids and dangerous gases. For example, Q-Cells, Germany’s largest cell manufacturer, consumed a total of 6,188 metric tons of acids and bases in 2008 to refine 1,863 tons of silicon into solar cells. 1,410 tons of industrial gases were also required. The company’s energy requirement reached 100 million megawatt-hours, and 621,663 cubic meters of water was consumed in total.
Such gases as nitrogen fluoride and sulfur hexafluoride are used to clean the silicon deposition chambers in thin film production. “Nitrogen trifluoride will remain stable for 550 to 740 years,” says Dean O’Connor, who heads the solar business department of gas producer Linde. “It’s a greenhouse gas.” One kilogram of nitrogen trifluoride heats the atmosphere up as much as 17.5 tons of carbon dioxide, while the equivalent for sulfur hexafluoride is 23.5 tons. “We’re noting a marked increase in the demand for nitrogen trifluoride from the photovoltaics industry,” he confirms. Since the spring, Linde has been offering its clients a new fluorine technology that uses harmless hydrofluoric acid as a replacement.

The biggest item is material

But it isn’t only silicon that requires a high expenditure of chemicals and energy before it goes into a solar module for a roof. Making CIS modules, for example, requires metals like copper and indium, and substances harmful to health like selenium (a relative of arsenic), cadmium, and hydrogen sulfide. The semiconductor layers are applied in galvanic baths or sputtering facilities and are subsequently baked in an autoclave. Chemistry is also involved in the cadmium-telluride process; what’s worse, cadmium is a poisonous heavy metal.
But enough of the horrors – the point is that cost pressure is forcing manufacturers of cells and modules to rationalize their production processes. “Materials make up around 80 percent of the cost of a crystalline solar module,” says Constantin Gerloff, environmental manager for the Solon group. “Silicon cells account for three-quarters of the cost,” says Franz Nieper of Aleo Solar. Process gases alone – such as silane, nitrogen trifluoride and ammonia – add up to around a fifth of total production costs for manufacturers of silicon thin film modules. “Capital costs are still in the foreground today. But the consumption data of the machines will take on more significance in the next few years,” prophesies Gerold Büchel, vice-chairman of Oerlikon Solar in Trübbach. “Materials are far and away the biggest items among manufacturing costs. Investment in the factory and labor costs are only the lesser part.” Besides the process media, production waste also drives costs up because it costs money to dispose of. SolarWorld therefore began cutting the volume of waste from the manufacturing process from 11,500 tons in 2007 to 9,300 tons the following year.

Triple green is the new trend

Green energy, green recycling – and now green manufacturing as well: triple green is the trend for the coming decade. Every gram less of silicon means reduced expenditure on silane, on the costly treatment of waste gases produced by the deposition chamber, on cleaning gases, and on other process agents.
“Intelligent process engineering has reduced our consumption of silane by 75 percent from when the factory started up,” reports Karl-Heinz Stegemann, vice president of technology at Signet Solar. The new plant in Mochau, near Döbeln, Germany, has been running for just one year. Extremely fine layers of amorphous silicon are deposited on 5.7 square-meter glass substrates there.
Another item in the calculations of the MBA's is the amount of water consumed. For instance, acids are needed to etch the silicon wafers for crystalline solar cells. They are then treated with chemicals to neutralize and clean the liquid wastes. Such ultrapure water systems have a throughput of 100 liters an hour. “If we can succeed in recycling 70 percent of the water in the process of etching the wafer slices, we’ll need seventy percent less chemicals, and we’ll be able to reduce our expenses for industrial wastewater by seventy percent,” calculates Carolus Kerber, director of engineering at plant designer IB Vogt. Odersun’s new production plant in Fürstenwalde shows that it isn’t just cell manufacturers who are aware of this fact. The CIS semiconductor is deposited on copper tapes in galvanic baths there.
“We use ultra-pure water systems with wastewater treatment and cascade filters so that we can recycle the water again,” confirms director of engineering Olaf Tober. As a result, hardly any fresh water is required. The new plant is to start up at the end of the year.

DIN 14001 certification

Quite a number of manufacturers are investing in environmental management systems ISO 14001 or EMAS certification to get the most precise possible overview of costs (see box below). Solon is among the leaders. “We started introducing our ISO 14001 environmental management system a year ago,” recalls Constantin Gerloff. “Our locations in Berlin, Greifswald, Freiburg, Switzerland, and America have already been certified. Italy will follow by the end of the year and will be certified in the first quarter of 2010.” The group allocated a sizeable budget to this operation: “Total expenditure was 120,000 to 130,000 euros,” calculates chief technical officer Lars Podlowksi. “Initial implementation at all locations cost between 180,000 and 200,000 euros.”
Solon is already noticing a market demand for sustainable manufacture. “Some large-scale requests for proposals ask for an environmental management system. Installers aren’t asking for the same thing yet, but they certainly react positively to certification.”
Burghard von Westerholt, manager of the First Solar plant in Frankfurt an der Oder, says: “Meeting the legal standards is a must, of course, but we have to do even more.” First Solar is also ISO 14001 certified. “We expect such certification from our suppliers as well, but we don’t demand it. Not yet.”
Certification has long been a standard fact of life in other sectors. “Every supplier and sub-supplier should be certified; that’s something we’ve taken over from the automotive industry,” says Klaus Bomhard, manager of the filling works for electronic gases in Unterschleissheim, near Munich, Linde Gas Deutschland, which also complies with ISO 14001.
Bodo Salz heads a Control Techniques production plant for large inverters in Bad Hennef. “Materials take the lion’s share of costs,” he confirms. “That’s why automation technology has tended for a long time to make manufacturing as green as possible.” All of Control Techniques’ manufacturing sites are certified to ISO 14001. The company has its own repair center to help reuse as many old inverter parts as possible. “Sustainable manufacture is economically interesting,” sums up Gerold Büchel of Oerlikon Solar. “The fact that sustainability is gaining in significance as a quality feature shows that the market is going to grow.” And Carolus Kerber of IB Vogt says: “Ecological knowledge is becoming a core competence for a manufacturer.”
###MARGINALIE_BEGIN###

###MARGINALIE_END###
###MARGINALIE_BEGIN###

###MARGINALIE_END###
###MARGINALIE_BEGIN###

###MARGINALIE_END###

A photovoltaic membrane of 4,296 square meters stretches over 33 robust steel supports like a thin cloth. Through it, you can see clouds drifting by. At irregular, seemingly random intervals, a transparent glass element allows a clear view of the sky. When the students and teachers of the Herwig Blankertz School move into their new space in the former Pommern barracks in Wolfhagen, Germany, next school year, they will pass through this converted tank hangar, whose atmosphere is created by light coming through transparent PV modules.
Architecture firm HHS of Kassel kept the tank hangar’s steel structure, replaced the asbestos sheet roofing with solar modules, and created classrooms underneath. The structured solar modules let ten percent of the sunlight trickle into the building. The giant roofing skin gives off a striking impression. From below, it looks almost delicate. “Thin film modules create a very fine structure. We wanted this delicateness for our project,” explains project manager Markus Meinlschmidt of HHS. In addition, the firm wanted the photovoltaic surface to have some disruptions so it doesn’t seem perfect and uniform. To this end, the designers replaced an occasional solar module with a clear glass element, creating an effect of “broken tiles on a barn roof” – random patches of light and clear views.
Italy and France in particular are breathing life into the market for transparent modules with higher compensation for building-integrated photovoltaics. According to a study by market research firm EuPD Research, they constitute a big share – 59 percent – of the relatively small French market. In Germany, too, the total volume of photovoltaic expansion is expected to grow from three percent today to seven percent in 2012. Indeed, the market is becoming more interesting not only for architects, who can design “lighter” constructions, often with thin film modules as in the school in Wolfhagen, but also for manufacturers, who are developing products for new structural possibilities.
Glass-glass modules, in which crystalline cells are placed at varying distances from each other, are well known and widely used. Light comes into a building through the variably spaces gaps. The architects at HHS also continue to use this technology. It is still attractive, since the hand-sized cells create a distinctive pattern of shadows that architects can use in interior spaces. One example of this technique is the façade of inverter manufacturer SMA’s headquarters. There, double glazed elements with monocrystalline cells in various formats compose the exterior. The result is a glass façade with starkly contrasting areas of light and darkness.
Another well-established way to “play” with transparency is to perforate crystalline cells, as Sunways does. The company perforates their monocrystalline cells with 64 holes, each 5 x 5 millimeters square. This pattern creates a transparency of ten percent and allows an even amount of light to come through across the entire module surface. According to the company, efficiency is still 13.7 percent.
Renowned architect Frank O. Gehry used these cells for a building made entirely of glass, designed for Novartis in Basel. The glass structure is entirely covered in solar cells. This thick cover of cells, which allows only ten percent of the sunlight into the building, prevents overheating while still letting excellent quality light shine in evenly across all façade surfaces. For this project, the California architect ordered solar cells with round perforations at a diameter of only two millimeters.
It’s not all about function. While transparent modules provide both protection from the sun and produce electricity, they also have the advantage over conventional sun protection – a particular quality of light; sunlight filtered through structured solar modules retains its natural color. If the layering density is well matched to the location, using colored glass in a façade or atrium roof may not be necessary.

Stripes, points and rhombuses

Of course, structures do not always have to be small to let in an even amount of light. “What we do with photovoltaics is exactly the opposite of what people expect from a window,” says Christof Erban of Schüco. If you look out through a photovoltaic façade from the inside, you notice dark areas framed by lighter areas. So why not use this effect and play with the forms? Erban, working on new patterns for façade modules based on crystalline cells, is placing thin, dark strips of cells on larger clear glass surfaces to form a weaving pattern of square frames.
Apparently, the process is easier with thin film modules. In a second step after depositing the photovoltaically active semiconductor layers, a laser can make the extensively coated glass panes transparent by removing the black or reddish photovoltaic treatment in some places on the raw module. Stripes, rhombuses, points and freehand designs can thus be created on the active surface. Output losses are roughly equal to the amount of surface removed. A module with ten percent transparency therefore produces one tenth less than a comparable opaque module.
“For the project with the converted tank hangar in Wolfhagen, we had the choice between modules with crystalline cells and thin film,” explains HHS architect Meinlschmidt. Together with their clients, the architects decided on thin film amorphous silicon modules, which cover 90 percent of the surface area. When people look out of the building, they get a rough view of the surroundings. As the current roof is not optimally facing sunward, thin film technology promises higher yields as a percentage of nominal output, since thin film modules are good at turning even diffuse sunlight into electricity.
The 100 x 60 centimeter glass elements lie on a secondary structure made of timber rafters. While retaining ledges secure the long sides, only bands of silicon, in the direction rainwater flows, cover the glass joints. The modules’ wiring runs down aluminum profiles parallel to the drip molding to the inverters, which are secured to the steel stanchions. The 7,160 thin film modules made of amorphous silicon manufactured by Schott Solar of Alzenau, Germany, bring the system to a total of 220 kilowatts peak output.

New solutions with thin film

Thin film cells also easily allow a gradient in the transparency from dark to light, as can be seen on a school façade composed of CIS modules from Würth Solar. These 132 modules, with a basis of copper, indium, and selenium, were designed especially for use in double glazing. Twenty black opaque modules were placed under 108 transparent modules, whose line structure becomes finer as it goes upwards, increasing the amount of light let through. The 92 square meter façade reaches a peak output of seven kilowatts, which comes out to a power density of 76 watts per square meter. In comparison, the opaque CIS modules manage 111 watts per square meter. An array’s yield depends on the degree of transparency. Würth Solar offers up to 50 percent, but that is a fairly rare figure. More common are transparent areas of ten or thirty percent of a module’s surface.
Timo Bauer, product manager at Würth Solar, thinks semi-transparency will continue to be a hot topic. He completed several projects last year in cooperation with architects. The process always looks about the same. “We charge one-time fees for creating the layout,” Bauer explains. “Then we create an individual design through discussions with the client.” The most popular transparent module from the company is composed of alternating clear and opaque areas with a width of three centimeters each. Bauer himself is currently working on designing a more delicate striped structure. “I’m thinking of two to three millimeter thin strips that would create a homogenous image without a zebra effect,” he says.
So far, custom design of transparent areas has only been possible with CIS modules from Würth Solar, although laser technology can make any thin film technique transparent. Schott Solar, for example, manufactures its thin film module ASI Thru with ten percent transparency in only one size – 60 x 100 centimeters – and doesn’t vary the grid pattern for the transparency. When window fitters use modules in large double glazed panes, they place them next to each other, leaving the sides visible. From its offices in Wiesbaden, Germany, Japan’s Kaneka markets modules that are also just under one square meter.
Signet Solar’s European Headquarters in Mochau, Germany, has other plans. Signet produces modules of about six square meters, with edge lengths of up to 2.2 x 2.6 meters. In collaboration with laser specialist Jenoptik of Jena and an industrial partner from the window manufacturing industry, Signet is preparing to enter the market in 2010 with transparent modules in variable patterns. The company is also testing the market beforehand to make sure its products will meet customer demand. “With Jenoptik’s laser technology, individual settings for module stripping can be easily implemented,” explains Signet sales manager Matthias Gerhardt. “But no matter what the flexibility, in the end, what counts is value for the buck,” Gerhardt adds. In other words, not only should the module look good, but also produce electricity. To this end, Signet Solar is aiming for a maximum transparency of 20 percent. Architects and building owners will therefore have an even broader palette of photovoltaic options to choose from in the future.

In 2009, more than half of the modules sold at pvXchange.com were from CdTe specialist First Solar. High-performance polycrystalline modules were the second most bought technology. Yingli, Suntech Power and Canadian Solar were the clear favorites, even though there was a wide range of alternative products at low prices. Microcrystalline modules from Sharp, Mitsubishi and Schott Solar were also in high demand. The high-performance monocrystalline modules made by Sunpower of the U.S. have garnered many new customers in Europe. Conversely, despite good market conditions, little interest was shown in European manufacturers aside from Norway’s REC and German brands. Spot market demand was clear: popular modules from established, well-known manufacturers.
In 2009, the busiest European markets for solar products were Germany, Italy, Belgium, France and the Czech Republic. The forecasts for 2010 look even better, though sources differ on the exact numbers. Realistically, 2010 will see seven to ten gigawatts of additional installed capacity. New markets like China and the U.S. will play an important role in this growth, while Canada and India will account for a smaller percentage. Germany is expected to post the most growth in 2010.
Recently announced contracts and new partnerships indicate that the market will stay quite busy in 2010. Current supply contracts totaling approximately 50 megawatts – like the one between Sovello AG and solar energy system manufacturer Mp-tec GmbH, and the one between Payon AG and Yingli Green Energy – are good examples of market activity. The Wattner Group and Ecostream GmbH recently entered into a contract to supply 20 megawatts of turnkey PV power plants to Germany in 2010. Finally, Bosch and Allianz are working together to construct large-scale plants with capacities starting at one megawatt. 2010 will certainly be a promising year for the PV sector.
Gema Gary is a Senior Consultant for pvXchange GmbH
For information on the data collected, visit www.pvXchange.com
###MARGINALIE_BEGIN###

###MARGINALIE_END###

The Ardour Solar Index (SOLRX) trended higher in the observed period (November 14 to December 15) and closed with a 15.5 percent gain. The main drivers for the early December rally were the positive data points on European installation volumes during November and growing sentiment that current strong demand for wafers, cells and modules will remain robust into 1Q10.
Manufacturers in Taiwan also reported improved visibility into 1Q10 and are increasingly optimistic on pricing to kick off the New Year.
Industry consolidation continued in December. The Swiss PV equipment makers Meyer Burger and 3S Industries will join forces to cover a larger section of the PV value chain. The takeover of 3S, a module production hardware specialist, underscores our thesis that quality module production is an increasing priority at this juncture for the nascent solar industry.
Key European index constituents ended the observed period on a strong note, having benefited from market tailwinds associated with the flurry of fourth quarter activity. Renewable Energy Corp AS (REC) led the index higher with a 25.1 percent stock gain after investors digested the weak 3Q09 results. Solarworld also ended the period 6.5 percent higher on expectations of a big year end volume push. The stock also successfully defended key technical support after 3Q09 results. Q-Cells drifted 4.4 percent lower during a relatively quiet period in which the company settled its contract dispute with LDK Solar.
Of the Index constituents traded on the U.S. exchanges, Suntech Power Holdings led with a 30.5 percent jump in the observed period. Suntech’s stock price benefited from strong 3Q09 revenue performance and increased demand in Europe. First Solar shares rebounded 17.5 percent on news that Chinese ASP pressure could moderate in 2010 on stronger demand. These gains were offset by a 8.7 percent decline in Sunpower, after an internal review of its Philippine manufacturing operations identified unsubstantiated accounting entries that understated its 2009 cost of goods sold.
Ardour Capital Investments International GmbH; Adam Krop, Adour Capital Investments, LLC

Sunday, October 4th, 2009, 2 AM. Germany is sleeping soundly. It is pleasant for this time of year at over ten degrees Celsius almost everywhere in the country; a rough wind from the coast whistles by the buildings. The three-winged propellers at wind farms spin away indefatigably. That night, the European Energy Exchange (EEX) in Leipzig, Germany, reports a new record. The price of electricity falls to minus 500 euros per megawatt-hour. In other words, operators of inflexible baseload power plants pay 500 euros to export a megawatt-hour of power to the grid; the alternative would be to lower production. In a number of homes in Mannheim, Germany, some appliances – generally washing machines and dishwashers – receive a radio signal to start running. Refrigerators can also be remote-controlled to lower their temperature for free.

Sun in the forecast

For some two years, 20 homeowners in Mannheim have been testing a power rate based on the price of electricity at the EEX. An “Energy Butler” that can automatically control appliances remotely helps these families shift power consumption away from expensive peak-demand times, thus saving them money. The Energy Butler is one of numerous tests currently being conducted in six parts of Germany under the umbrella project called “E-Energy.” The goal of these projects is to make power grids and gas lines smarter and more controllable. All of this is necessary because more and more power is being generated from distributed, intermittent sources such as wind and solar. Grid operators increasingly have to react to power peaks and power drops that are unrelated to consumption. Aside from conventional power plants management, the best solution would include demand management; more power should be consumed when and where it is produced. To this end, grid managers have to convince private and industrial customers to tailor their demand to times of high generation and to store energy. In industry jargon, they have to help “shave peaks”.
But convincing families – the smallest units on the power market – to play along turns out to be a tough job. Even small changes to the typical consumption curve, called the standard load profile, are hard to come by. For conventional power generators, a constant load 24 hours a day would be ideal. But consumers need to react flexibly to intermittent energy sources. MVV Energie AG, the municipal utility in Mannheim, therefore launched the “Laundry by the sun” project four years ago. Families in a neighborhood with a large share of photovoltaic arrays have their washing machines switch on when sun is in the weather forecast. The neighborhood only has a few power lines connecting it to the rest of town, making it a bit of an island within the Mannheim grid. The project directors have therefore gained some important insights into the effects of washing clothes. They send customers an SMS informing them that it’s laundry time.
“You have to take a look at each part of the grid individually,” explains Frieder Schmitt, director of technology and innovation at MVV Energie. He says the controls are different depending on the density of interconnections and the grid’s structure and quality. For instance, when solar arrays are producing a lot of power, it may be best to increase local consumption, even if that means increasing power consumption during peak times. Tests revealed that load shifts did stabilize the local grid. But it also quickly became clear that the solution would not be long-term. While the participants were glad to take part and showed a lot of interest, what they really wanted was for everything to take place automatically.

The Energy Butler helps

Now, automation has been included in the project. The second field test also included financial incentives for customers. For instance, the Wirth family in Mannheim-Gartenstadt has an energy manager that monitors and controls its appliances. A radio-controlled power switch is plugged in between the wall socket and an appliance’s power cord. A computer program called the Energy Butler controls the power switch. The Butler designs a schedule for the appliances based on the hourly power rates for the next day that MVV Energie publishes online. These power rates are based on a price forecast for the price of power at the EEX, which includes not only probable demand, but also weather forecasts. Other parameters could be added.
If you want to wash dishes, for instance, you simply fill up the dishwasher and switch on the radio-controlled power switch. The Energy Butler waits until the price goes down before switching on the dishwasher. The two-year test revealed how much peaks can be shaved. But few home appliances can be remotely controlled in this way. Basically, the only candidates are washing machines, dryers, refrigerators and freezers, and dishwashers. Fortunately, they also make up around 40 percent of home power consumption. “But it gets to be a pain when you always have to start your day by hanging up clothes to dry because the washing machine always runs during the night,” says Harry Wirth. He therefore has his Butler do the washing during the day. And of course, home entertainment electronics, stoves, ovens and small appliances are still switched on manually, because it is inconvenient to postpone their use.
However, interested users of the Energy Butler can still shift some of the consumption with manually controlled appliances. For instance, Harry Wirth takes a look at the price forecast before he cuts the grass with his electric mower or works with other power tools. Overall, the 20 participants of the field test manage to shift 10-12 percent of their consumption. And Mr. Wirth also says he learned a lot. “I was surprised at how much some appliances actually consume.” He now takes a much closer look at the power bill, which now comes every month instead of once a year, as usual in Germany. These tests with real customers are therefore not only of interest to energy providers. For instance, it is interesting to see how much attention people, who want to make do with solar power from their roof, pay to their consumption, and what information they need to adapt their energy usage to energy production.

The elderly are more aware

Schmitt and his project director for energy management, Sebastian Warkentin, said that families managed to save the most because they benefit the most from shifting laundry cycles and also generally have larger freezers. Elderly participants were especially interested in the project and shifted their consumption more than the group on average. They dealt with the Energy Butler’s technical possibilities to a surprising extent. In contrast, young singles almost completely relied on automatic functions and otherwise changed little. But all of the participants welcomed the new clarity in their power bills, which allowed them for the first time to see what devices consume the most power, the two grid experts report.
But even after the quite positive results of the field tests to date, there's still a long way to go before it is implemented for the general public. A number of obstacles remain. For instance, the sheer amount of data that would have to be generated, transmitted, and stored would require a tremendous computer architecture. German utilities would have to switch from reading meters once a year to reading them and providing feedback by the hour. And then there are the forecast models, rate calculations and control data. The second obstacle is the price itself. In the test, it was directly related to the price on the power exchange, increased by a single factor designed to cover the utility’s fixed costs and profit margin.

Active energy trading

As a result, the price was quite variable. At night, it was generally between three and eight cents per kilowatt-hour, but it rose to 40 or 50 euro cents during peak consumption. Normal consumers would probably not accept such fluctuations. In addition, MVV Energie gets power from other sources and from its own power plants, so its actual purchase prices differ considerably from the rate on the exchange. But if this purchase price served as the basis, customers would have to blindly trust their utility. Thirdly, what is possible today in Mannheim is not necessarily feasible on every grid. In Germany, power providers can offer their rates to customers all over the country. Grid operators charge these power providers for the power transported over their grid based on a standard load profile. No deviations are accounted for. As a result, savings from peaks shaved off one grid could not be “exported” to another.
“Adapting the general design of the energy market to suit future needs is an important goal of the E-Energy project,” explains Ludwig Karg, the project’s research director. The current rules are still designed for a “one-way street” from central power producers to consumers.
But E-Energy is forcing legislators to take a closer look at distributed energy production. Operators of photovoltaic arrays will have to be able to play an active role in energy trading one day – at the very latest, when Germany’s Renewable Energy Act expires. E-Energy has just subjected a few possible mechanisms to their first test run. Karg describes one of the options: “Because the EEX does not provide for small power sellers, owners of distributed arrays could join forces to create a virtual power plant. The larger the virtual plant, the more reliable forecasts and supplies of electricity would be.” He says that very high prices are already offered at peak times.

Changes on the market

At present, the communication technology, infrastructure and legal basis that virtual power plants need are lacking. But Karg is convinced that even inexpensive photovoltaic electricity would be competitive during peak consumption. In contrast, Tobias Federico, energy market analyst and head of the Energy Brainpool in Berlin, believes that energy prices will plummet into the negative more often in the future. A change in market mechanisms in January is the reason; the goal was to compensate for great fluctuations in intermittent renewable energy. “In reality, we are starting to pay the price for the inflexibility of our current central plants,” he explains. All consumers will have to cover the costs.
Local solutions may offer some protection. The Mannheim utility is therefore already working on a small version of a virtual energy market. The next field test will include 20 owners of photovoltaic and micro-cogeneration units. The digital power meters, called “smart meters,” provide a virtual marketplace with data about the power being exported to the grid in real time. Starting in February, 150 participants will be able to buy power on this virtual market. This select group of people will then be able to buy green power from their neighbor’s roof. The Energy Butler would only turn on the washing machine if the photovoltaic array was exporting enough power to the grid. Buyers could be offered a bonus for purchases of nearby power if the purchase helps reduce grid losses. The question is whether customers will want to deal with such details or prefer to stick to flat-rate offers. The specific rules of the marketplace, the design of the Internet platform, and the stability of the communication network will be determined and optimized in the test.

Large storage capacity

Small cogeneration units are much more interesting than solar panels for the tests in the E-Energy project. After all, you can actually ramp them up and down depending on need. These small cogeneration units are mainly intended to provide homeowners with heat. But that heat can be stored for hours in boilers. “Peak demand sometimes only lasts 30 or 40 minutes, so even small shaves can have tremendous effects,” explains Warkentin. Cuxhaven, another German community that is a pioneer in this area, uses both cold and heat storage to store excess wind energy for short periods. When power demand is low, temperatures in refrigerated fish warehouses can be reduced even further, and swimming pools can be heated up a bit more. “Storing large amounts of energy in this way is fairly easy in terms of the effects on the grid,” Karg argues. “We are going to see the first major impact here.”
E-Energy continues until 2012, when market-ready mechanisms are to be on hand. Karg believes it is a good idea for the various regions involved to continue to work on solutions for private homes. Private consumers already need a better understanding of how much and when they consume power, and they may soon need a better understanding of power production. Karg also believes that ease of use and effects of new applications have to be tested. Some regions focus on smart meters, while others want mobile controls from iPhones or such energy managers as the Energy Butter. “In two or three years, we will have applications like these on the market,” Warkentin predicts. The development of new business models is therefore an important aspect of the E-Energy project. “One brainstorming session alone produced 120 business ideas,” Karg praises the flexibility of the new energy internet. He says there are entirely new worlds to discover and compares the potential to the telecommunications market, where it was also not clear at the beginning of liberalization that the market would one day produce ringtone subscriptions and rate advisors.
Future buyers of photovoltaic arrays will probably also have to decide how they want to market their electricity. Would you like to join a virtual power plant, have the array remotely controlled, take part in a grid system service, sell power to your neighbors, or set up your own charging station for electric cars? Smart grids will offer a lot of options. But first, the energy sector will have to start making the grid smart. And until they are finished, photovoltaics will still need feed-in tariffs.

Even people unfamiliar with inductors have probably heard them often. If a humming sound comes from the basement where the inverter is installed, the inductor is usually to blame. But the sound is not the only annoyance; inductors also cause electrical losses. That’s where Stefan Schauer comes in. “At the moment, we’re introducing new materials again,” he says. The technical marketing director at Sintermetalle Prometheus, also known as SMP, is working on inductors that increase inverter efficiencies. “Inductors with ten percent lower losses boost efficiency by 0.5 percent,” he says.
While solar inverters have a number of inductors, the smoothing choke on the output side of the inverter circuit is particularly critical. The DC power that solar generators produce is initially chopped up at a high frequency in the inverter before being reassembled into AC power with the correct polarity. As a result, the current and voltage progress in steps rather than in a smooth curve. Circuitry that includes an inductor then smooths the current and voltage into a sine curve and suppresses harmonic interference to the greatest extent possible.
Inductors have been around since the early days of electronic engineering. The AEG Power Solutions inverter plant in Warstein-Belecke, Germany, has been incorporating inductors into its inverters for decades. Back then, power switches were either mercury arc valves or thyristors. Their switching frequency of 50 hertz was the same as the frequency of the AC power in the grid and thus so low that they produced big, rectilinear AC packets. The inductors back then had to smooth out very large steps. As semiconductor components advanced, however, requirements changed. Nowadays, either insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBT) or power transistors chop up solar direct current into alternating current. And they do it much faster than thyristors could. This produces an AC curve downstream of the power switches, which conforms very well to the sine curve of the current on the grid. The inductor merely does the fine tuning.
A new product from Kaco New Energy shows that inductors are still a relevant topic. The Powador 4000 Supreme can operate at two different frequencies. It has an efficiency of 97 percent at 18 kilohertz, and at half that frequency (nine kilohertz) it is 0.2 percent more efficient, but produces audible noise. The functional principle of an inductor does not look very high tech at first glance, however. It is essentially a coil of wire. When current flows through the wire, it creates a magnetic field like the one in an electromagnet. Every time the polarity of alternating current switches, the polarity of the magnetic field surrounding the coils also has to switch. The pole-switching magnetic field then acts on the current in the coil like an electrical generator. The technical term for this is “self-induction”. The feedback process smooths out the power. Because the magnetic field of the coil contains energy, the coil is most accurately described as a short-term storage device. To amplify the effect, a wire can be wrapped around a magnetized core. So much for the basic theory. In the complex reality, inductor manufacturers are constantly tuning three factors – material, the coil, and core design – to minimize noise, size, harmonics and losses. Weight is also an important factor. The inductor comprises about a quarter of the 20 kilograms of a modern transformerless five-kilowatt inverter. Most of that weight is due to the magnetized core, which is a matter of some disagreement. Inductors have cores made of metal, ferrite, and powder.

Optimizing shape and material

Their size is due to the characteristics of the material. In a small inductor, the strength of the magnetic field in the core is very high. That can be a problem because materials cannot continue to amplify a magnetic field beyond a certain point, a limit value the experts call “saturation induction”. Another problem is that higher losses can occur in materials under certain circumstances if the magnetic field is too high. The situation is further complicated because materials with high saturation induction – a desirable characteristic – do not necessarily have lower losses in strong magnetic fields. Hence, there are different approaches and solutions.
Kaco currently makes extensive use of iron powder cores. “But the types of powder currently in use are being phased out,” says Frank Philippen, who recently left his position as head of development at inductor manufacturer Kaschke to work with the inverter manufacturer. Whether powder is the right solution depends on the application. “If I have high ripple current, I cannot use iron powder,” he explains, referring to the harmonics in output power. In such cases, Kaco uses ferrite cores. The cores are also smaller, even though iron powder’s saturation induction is two to three times higher. “An iron powder core would theoretically be a third of the size of a ferrite core,” he says. But because iron powder has higher losses in strong magnetic fields, the higher saturation induction is of little help. Iron powder cores have to be built larger to disperse the magnetic field, which is why they are also heavier. Jens Gunkel of inductor manufacturer Kaschke Components is skeptical of iron powder cores. “We used to make a lot of iron powder cores, too, because the shapes of such cores are simpler. But losses are phenomenal,” he explains. Now, he prefers ferrite. “At mid-range outputs, today’s ferrite core shapes have lower power losses.”
But there is an even better way. Frank Phlippen of Kaco has his eye on other material mixtures, such as nickel or iron alloys containing up to twelve percent silicon. While losses are the same as, or higher, than those of ferrite cores, the alloy cores can be built smaller because they can withstand stronger fields. In airplanes, where weight is crucial, alloy cores are standard equipment; for solar, they are still too expensive. Ultimately, it is a matter of cost. “There are enough other materials that are cheaper for the same magnetic characteristics,” Jens Gunkel says. In practice, optimizing shape and material is a very complicated calculation, requiring the expertise of induction manufacturers. Mauricio Esguerra of U.S. magnetic core manufacturer Falco Electronics therefore believes that development is far from complete. There are simply far too many material characteristics and physical parameters that come into play to reduce the problem to one of high or low current. When frequency is low and current is high in an inductor, for instance, ring cores made of iron alloy powder are generally better than ferrite cores. When frequency is high and current low, a ferrite core with a partitioned air gap is theoretically better. If you believe Esguerra, Falko has the best computer-assisted inductor design program in the world for finding the optimal core shape/material combination.
Stefan Schauer of SMP also sees potential in powder cores when small size is not a factor. SMP is also experimenting with “powder composite materials – that is, grains of iron powder mixed with plastic and compressed”. By Schauer’s estimation, new materials could boost efficiency by several percent, even using well-established core shapes. He thinks that SMP technology makes it possible to build inverters with efficiencies of 99 percent. And when it comes to the unwanted noise, he has some tricks up his sleeve. The humming noises are created because cores expand and contract with the periodic switching of the current direction. The experts call this magnetostriction. For several years, Schauer’s company has been offering magnetostriction-free material which suppresses this effect and scarcely hums at all. “The material is expensive, but it saves on noise insulation,” he says. That is especially important in small inverters intended for installation in residential buildings.

Dear readers,
We saw recently at the UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen how difficult it is for the world community to pull together on climate protection. Still, the new decade will be a period of energy and resource efficiency and renewable energy. Of that I am firmly convinced. Because how can we hope to save our world from climate collapse, secure our energy resources and create jobs, if we don’t implement intelligent economic measures and an expansion of the regenerative energy network that includes solar, wind, biomass, and the like?
It is clear that the financing for a relatively new technology like photovoltaics will be costly. But ultimately its advantages will pay off, because solar technology has reached a market competitiveness exceeding the projections of recent years. Bank Sarasin, the private Swiss bank, calculates that the world market for solar technology for this year will increase sharply, foremost because of the increasing economic efficiency of photovoltaics. Bank Sarasin expects newly installed output to grow by 46 percent, which corresponds to 8.5 gigawatts. The analysts from Basel anticipate that in the next two years a minimum of ten new photovoltaics markets will develop with a yearly output volume of more than 500 megawatts (page 32). By 2020 more than twelve percent of Europe’s electricity generation should be covered by photovoltaics, which is the ambitious goal of the European Commission. The Roadmap created in Brussels stipulates how to achieve this goal (page 12).
A competitive and innovative photovoltaic industry is a prerequisite for an era of solar energy. Over the last year the sector felt the severe effects of the global recession on the interconnected financial markets. And so, it becomes even more important to increase efficiency and cut costs.
There are several means to do this. Centrotherm, for instance, now offers a turnkey plant for copper-indium based thin film modules (CIGS) that should increase competitiveness and make mass production possible (page 74).
In the first part of our six-part series, “Triple Green,” we show how the solar industry can reduce costs and protect the environment by means of more efficient production. Green manufacturing, green recycling and green energy will be the industry trend in the coming decade. Our series shows how companies can reduce spending with effective environmental management systems (page 56).
I believe strongly in the potential of green-oriented industry, and specifically in a sustainable future through solar energy. As the new editor in chief of pv magazine, I intend to give our coverage even more international and industry-specific focus to provide you with all practical and relevant information available.
I would like to encourage you to present your ideas and topic proposals, and look forward to a constructive dialogue – so together we can bring about a new green decade.
I hope you enjoy reading this new issue.
Hans-Christoph Neidlein
Editor in chief

Four years ago, anyone driving into New Orleans’ Ninth Ward had to brace themselves emotionally. Here, the levee breach after Katrina was the worst. In other parts of the city, flooded homes stood in water for weeks. In the Lower Ninth Ward, the force of a 15-foot wall of water literally scraped away entire blocks of this densely populated community.
Drive into that community today, and you will see the first solar homes going up. Actor Brad Pitt is helping to finance the construction of 150-200 solar homes in his Make It Right project. Pitt got his feet wet in solar working with Global Green, an international sustainability NGO that set up shop in New Orleans after Katrina.
Troy Von Otnott is cofounder of South Coast Solar, the solar firm that has probably benefited most from recent events. The reasoning for his support for solar is revealing: “My sister did not evacuate New Orleans when Katrina hit, and we did not hear from her for two weeks. Everyone feared the worst. You can imagine how I felt when I finally got a call from the Red Cross saying she and her kids were at a shelter in Baton Rouge and were fine.” For Von Otnott, a real estate developer, the phone call was a life-changing event. He resolved to stop “wasting my time developing entertainment projects” and spend all of his time on sustainability projects.
Environmentalism and religion seem kindred spirits in Louisiana. “I almost became a priest,” explains Jesse George, legal expert at the Alliance for Affordable Energy, a local energy non-profit based in New Orleans. Instead, he chose a career in protecting God’s creation. The Holy Cross neighborhood in New Orleans also “saw the light” after Katrina and “resolved to build back carbon-neutral,” according to Forest Bradley-Wright, an outreach officer at the Alliance who attended weekly community rebuilding at meetings for a few years. Holy Cross is now the site of Global Green’s first solar homes, and a new community center will also have a solar roof.
This change of heart is not limited to New Orleans. At a recent meeting of the Louisiana Public Services Commission, one of the five commissioners had an expert hold a presentation on how climate change wasn’t happening. The other four commissioners rebelled. “And the funny thing is, even that one climate-skeptic commissioner is on our side when it comes to Louisiana getting a Renewable Portfolio Standard,” explains George. The doors therefore seem wide open for solar in Louisiana.

Donations get things going

Solar is thus currently being developed in Louisiana based on two pillars: donations to high-visibility projects in the rebuild after Katrina; and a new state policy that everyone is eligible for throughout the state.
“We put up the 30 kilowatt array on Warren Easton High in only one day,” explains Von Otnott. The thin film panels installed on the school were a donation from Entergy and Nike and were glued directly onto the roof, which was made “solar-ready”. Linda Stone of Global Green explains what “solar-ready” means: “The roof has to be strong enough to support solar panels, there has to be sufficient space on roof for the panels, and room has to be left in the walls to run the necessary conduit for the panels.”
She says Global Green does not actually do the photovoltaic parts of the school projects itself, but is providing funding to the Recovery School District, so they can utilize third parties like South Coast Solar. “In four schools, we invested 75,000 U.S. dollars in energy audits and retrofits such as efficient lighting, solar shades, occupancy sensors, and thermostat adjustments for occupancy load and seasons. The estimated payback averages around 23,000 dollars a year, so we are quite pleased.” The renovation money comes from the Bush-Clinton Katrina Fund, and two other schools (“Green Model Schools”) are receiving far larger sums to ensure that they attain LEED Silver certification (the “Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design” certification that was developed by the U.S. Green Building Council).
In Holy Cross, “Sharp donated the panels, the inverters, and installation,” explains Karen Wimpelberg, cofounder of the Alliance. Brad Pitt shoulders much of the funding for homes in the Ninth Ward, where the old property owners have the right of first refusal. Make It Right tries to make a generous offer to people who chose not to come back.
But donations are no way to keep solar going in the long run. Fortunately, Louisiana is throwing a lot more support behind solar, regardless of whether you are a Katrina victim or not. The state policy is more interesting than the donations because everyone can be involved – everyone, that is, except businesses. The state policy does not yet apply to commercial buildings, though that option could soon be added.

30 + 50 = 70?

The U.S. already offered a 30 percent tax rebate for solar roof arrays, but at the beginning of 2008 Louisiana added on an additional 50 percent tax rebate. Theoretically, you can now write off 80 percent of investments in solar up to a maximum of 25,000 U.S. dollars per system. “But we have found that 30 + 50 generally equals around 70,” explains Christian Roselund, communications director at the Alliance for Affordable Energy. The reason is that the 30 percent federal tax rebate is not paid in cash if you cannot write off the full amount – but the state rebate is. So while you always get all of the 50 percent state rebate, most people will not get the full 30 percent federal rebate.
U.S. 25,000 dollars is roughly enough for a three to four-kilowatt roof array, and if you get the full 80 percent back, the system will only cost you U.S. 5,000 dollars. If you get 70 percent back, you still only have to pay U.S. 7,500 dollars. Factor in the average power bill of U.S. 110 dollars a month in Louisiana, and solar clearly pays for itself in only around four to six years under the current policy. Nonetheless, obstacles remained.
For instance, the full amount has to be paid in advance, and you get the tax rebate paid out the following year. “U.S. 25,000 dollars is a lot of money for most of my constituents,” explains Louisiana public service Commissioner Foster Campbell, who mainly represents northern Louisiana. Obviously, bridge financing is needed, so Louisiana recently provided for it. Based on the bond model adopted in Berkeley, California, homeowners can now receive the upfront funding they require from the state and pay off the loan as part of property taxes over 20 years. This option also allows the cost of the photovoltaics array to be passed on as property taxes when the house is sold.
Between generous donations and creative public policy, a true solar market has come into being in Louisiana. “I estimate that there are probably some 65 solar contractors in Louisiana,” explains South Coast Solar’s Von Otnott, “but most of them are two guys and a truck.” When asked about a rumor that he himself started off only two years ago with a credit limit of 25,000 dollars on two credit cards, he smiles: “I’m afraid you’re right. We started out as three guys and a truck, but we are up to 32 guys and gals and five trucks now.”
One of the reasons for his company’s success is its collaboration with 1BOG (One Block off the Grid), a sort of door-to-door solar peddler based in San Francisco, but with a number of regional offices. One of the founders, Dave Llorens, hails from Shreveport, Louisiana, so Louisiana immediately registered on 1BOG’s radar in California when the new solar policies were implemented at the beginning of 2008.
“A lot of our customers do not know the difference between a kilowatt and a kilowatt-hour,” explains Llorens, “so we save the solar contractors the effort of doing all this explaining.” But customers also benefit, as Llorens points out. “First, we offer lower prices by getting around 100 homeowners to sign on, and then we buy bulk. Second, we ensure quality by selecting only the best local contractor” – in the case of New Orleans, South Coast Solar.
“We are very happy working with 1BOG,” says Von Otnott. “We usually have a closing ratio of around ten percent, but with them it is closer to 20 percent, so they really earn their commission of 25 cents per watt.”

Policy backlash?

Nonetheless, the Louisiana solar community is concerned that the current policy might place quite a great burden on tax revenue, and legislators could respond by slashing the program drastically. For Von Otnott, the best option is obvious: “Nothing works as well as feed-in tariffs.” He and the Alliance were instrumental in getting Louisiana Senator Nick Gautreaux to implement the state’s current policies. Von Otnott says he is increasingly talking about feed-in tariffs (FITs), though he is not optimistic yet. “I have attempted to explain FITs on several occasions, and all I get is blank stares.” He feels that the concept is still too foreign to American thinking.
Fortunately, he is not alone in trying to spread the word about FITs. For instance, the Sierra Club – the largest environmental organization in Louisiana – is also actively trying to explain the concept to legislators. “This is fantastic,” says Karen Wimpelberg, the cofounder of the Alliance, which is also raising awareness about FITs. “After two decades of the Alliance being the only NGO to weigh in on energy legislation in the state, Sierra representatives are now coming to commission meetings.”
So how likely is it that Louisiana will get FITs? “First, it would be good to have an RPS,” says George. He has certainly done a lot to get that achieved. In 2008, Lambert Boissiere III was appointed to be Public Services Commission Chairman in 2009. He responded to the Alliance’s repeated calls for a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) by asking if they could come up with a bare-bones draft of one. Boissiere got George’s draft RPS in early December, and his first act as chairman in 2009 was to propose it to the committee.
Then came the delays. An energy consulting firm was called in to produce a study on the potential of renewables in Louisiana. The study was presented to the commission on November 13, 2009 – near the end of Boissiere’s term as chairman. “But the really frustrating thing is that this exact study was already conducted in 2005, so all they really had to do is update the figures,” George expresses his disbelief at the ten months the study took.
The 2005 study found that Louisiana could have 22 percent renewable energy by 2020 for an additional three dollars a month on the average power bill of U.S. 110 dollars – an unsurprising finding if we consider that Germany has managed to become the world leader in solar and wind for a mere three percent surcharge added to the retail rate. But Louisiana is not Germany, and legislators found that three dollar increase to be too much, so the RPS was not adopted.
The Alliance believes that Louisiana may now very well be trying to preempt a national RPS. It is generally believed that, whatever national RPS may come out of the current proposals for a climate bill, the national legislation would somehow “prefer” anything that individual states already had. The idea is, no doubt, to reward states that went ahead and took the initiative, but in the case of Louisiana interest in a state RPS has specific reasons. “While most RPSs have really ramped up wind elsewhere, Louisiana does not have that much wind and is therefore concerned about Washington forcing it to set up turbines,” says the Alliance’s Christian Roselund, adding that the focus in Louisiana is clearly on solar and biomass.

The real opponent

With all of this latent support for renewables, and potentially for FITs, the question is whether there will be any opposition at all – and the answer is yes. At present, Entergy New Orleans has a monopoly on power production in the area it serves, but that situation is similar elsewhere in the state and, indeed, everywhere in the U.S. Essentially, solar is tolerated in many areas in net-metering schemes because the effect is the same as conservation (power consumption simply seems to be reduced when the meter runs backwards), but investor-owned utilities (IOUs) may actually refuse to enter into any Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). Yet, PPAs are needed if we want to decouple power generation from power consumption.
For instance, as Louisiana agricultural commissioner Mike Strain points out, “we have a number of biogas facilities in Louisiana, but we also have instances where we could be selling electricity to the grid very cheaply if we could get a PPA.” Von Otnott says that a new policy called “solar leasing” gets around the utility’s opposition to solar PPAs. “Essentially, you simply lease the equipment from the installer, who pays upfront. You then pay a monthly bill to the installer, and at the end of the lease you get the system for a dollar.”
So what does the future hold for solar in Louisiana? The state may very well implement an RPS, if only to prevent having one dictated to it by Washington. And Louisiana is proving resourceful in getting around the reluctance of IOUs to embrace PPAs for renewables, though more work needs to be done to cover biomass and commercial solar arrays. In all likelihood, the high-visibility projects based on donated panels in New Orleans will not produce a long-term market unless the state comes up with sustainable incentives. The current tax rebate has no volume ceiling and therefore nothing to prevent the market from overheating; a situation that is not sustainable. FITs that drop over time could help.
However, there is little risk of a market bubble at the moment. Many people in New Orleans seem to have no idea of Louisiana’s current exemplary solar policy. Basically, if you can afford to pay your power bill in Louisiana, you can afford to go solar. Now, local solar firms and activists have to get the word out.
###MARGINALIE_BEGIN###

###MARGINALIE_END###

The temperature in the laboratory rooms is constant: always 23 degrees Celsius with 50 percent humidity. Only under these standardized conditions can the tests be compared with one another. New adhesives for photovoltaics are constantly being developed and tested in Sika Service’s research and development department, not only at room temperature, but also under extreme conditions. Sika, based in Widen, Switzerland, near Zurich, is a manufacturer that produces specialized adhesives for industrial clients in photovoltaics. “We sell solutions, not products, to our customers,” says Leo Scheiwiller. As a market engineer, he makes sure that the researchers and developers understand the clients’ special wishes. The scientists then not only create the custom adhesives, they also make sure the right machines are available to process them. After all, how fast and economically something is glued down and how long it stays on depends not only on the adhesive, but also how it is processed. The result is only satisfactory when everything has been done well.
Adhesives can be found almost everywhere in the solar industry these days. “We’ve been noticing growing demand from solar technology for our adhesive solutions for some time now,” reports Claudia Berck, CEO of distributor Karger Industrieprodukte of Dietzenbach, Germany. Whether it’s for crystalline cells in frames, backrail adhesion for thin film modules, or conductor paths on the front and sockets on the back of a module, adhesives are replacing classic bonding techniques, like screws, clamps, and soldering more and more often. “For example, electrical conduits are poured in, and then sensors are glued onto them,” explains Artur Waldmann, technical director at Karger. These days, even mounting structures for photovoltaic arrays on caravans and RVs use adhesive bonding. Adhesive technologies tend to become established wherever they simplify construction, speed up production, and don’t damage materials.

Special demands

The photovoltaics industry didn’t start at square one. It was able to learn from other industries’ experiences. For façades, for example, glass has been glued to metal for some time now; electronics manufacturers glue elements to circuit boards; and even the aerospace and automotive industries are increasing their use of adhesives. “Adhesive technologies face particularly special demands in photovoltaics,” Waldmann says. “Arrays, for example, tend to have to deal with harsh weather conditions over the years, such as extreme temperature fluctuations, humidity and ultraviolet light. Adhesives must be able to survive all that and, in addition, protect the materials they bond together – for example, prevent metal from corroding. A particular adhesive’s characteristics depend on the material properties of the components it holds together. For example, flexible adhesives are necessary when the materials expand at different rates, as is the case for module surfaces made of glass and the frames surrounding them.
“Photovoltaic arrays use a lot of aluminum, which has a particularly high coefficient of thermal expansion of 27,” Waldmann explains. The linear expansion coefficient shows how much a material expands with a certain change in temperature compared to its total length. “When the temperature is around freezing at night, aluminum really contracts; during the day, when the sun is shining, it expands quite a bit.” Glass, on the other hand, has a coefficient of thermal expansion of only 3.2. An elastic adhesive must absorb this difference. Depending on the manufacturing process, adhesives can be very soft and elastic or hard and stiff. At Sika, the customers decide exactly how an adhesive is to be made, every time. The scientists at Sika compose and test specialized adhesives only for industrial clients.

Tests under extreme conditions

Such a development process can take up to two years. The exact recipes for the adhesive compositions are kept just as secret as seasoning mixtures in the food industry. Only adhesive samples on various materials are shown in the laboratories. The small, usually black strips, look a bit like caterpillars resting on the panes of glass. Engineer Felix Fischer takes a sharp blade and cuts one of these caterpillars open lengthwise, directly on the glass pane it is adhering to. Slowly, the blade cuts through the adhesive’s surface. Fischer closely examines the cut. Is a little bit of the adhesive still stuck to the pane? Or did his cut dissect the rubbery “caterpillar” directly on the glass without leaving some adhesive behind? In this way, he can see how strong the adhesive is – both the bond between the various materials, in this case glass and adhesive, and the bond within the adhesive. The experts thus also test again how well the materials to be bonded have been pretreated and whether the adhesive is the right one for the material. Often, predetermined breaking points are required: for example, where the adhesive should tear before the bonded glass can shatter. A few more tests are needed before an adhesive can be certified that it will hold together photovoltaic array elements under real-life weather conditions for more than 25 years. Ultraviolet radiation is particularly important. The UV test units in the laboratories look like incubators, but are opaque to protect employees’ eyes. Here, the adhesive caterpillars are constantly bombarded for three to six weeks, sometimes with arid conditions, sometimes with hot water – a sort of adhesive torture. The testers then check whether the adhesives have become brittle. At another test station, the black caterpillars are adhered onto white plastic. For weeks, the researchers check whether the white plastic shows any discoloration. If the material becomes darker after a while, that means plasticizers have moved from the silicon to the plastic and could, in turn, soften the plastic. In this case, the adhesive would not be suitable for that material.
Besides stability, how an adhesive is processed is also important in determining which application it is most suitable for. “We can’t work with a product that hardens in five minutes, if the production process has a four-minute clock cycle. That just doesn’t work,” Scheiwiller points out. In addition, an adhesive that, for example, secures an outlet cannot harden before the mass has evened itself out.

Pot life or skin formation

The amount of time before an adhesive cannot be further manipulated is precisely measurable. For two-part adhesives, experts call this time until the adhesive sets the “pot time.” For one-component adhesives, it is the time until the adhesive forms a skin. One-part adhesives are mainly used outside in the installation process because a two-part system is difficult to deal with on a construction site. Two-part adhesives are usually restricted to the interior of a unit. “Two-part adhesives are mostly used in production,” Scheiwiller explains. “So if you wanted to use an adhesive in the final production step before packaging, say for back rail bonding, then you’d use a two-component one.”
Back rail adhesion for thin film is an important focus of research at Sika. Thin film production facilities are currently becoming bigger and bigger. With size, the importance of an efficient fastening system is also growing. In the crystalline industry, manufacturers focus particularly on framed systems. However, because modules continue to increase in size, these systems don’t really make financial sense for thin film. For this reason, various manufacturers and adhesive producers are working on frameless solutions. Construction must be made simpler to minimize installation time on site and make arrays more economical. The best way to achieve these goals is to produce thin film modules that only need to be hung or clicked into the substructure on the construction site. For this, the modules need brackets on their backs. The best way to attach these is with an adhesive, which can be done well in automated production under optimal conditions, at a constant temperature and humidity, and with precise processing of the adhesive by machines.

Reducing adhesive clock cycles

However, new adhesives need to be constantly developed to keep up with the fastest and most efficient production processes currently available. Scheiwiller puts it concretely: “We’re talking about clock cycle times of 30 seconds per module these days. That means that the adhesive has to catch up.” Only two-part adhesives can be taken into consideration here. When mixing a particular adhesive, the researchers have to, on one hand, keep in mind how long the adhesive has before it becomes slightly resilient. On the other hand, the time until it completely hardens is also important. If the recently glued module is warmed up, the adhesive hardens sooner.
“If you choose packaging wisely, vulcanization in the adhesive can even happen once it’s packaged, if it’s stored properly, which leads to savings in downstream processes,” explains Scheiwiller. Developing the right adhesive to a client’s satisfaction is the main task. The clients, however, often have little knowledge of adhesive technologies. “They have a lot of experience in terms of cells, what the module itself needs, and how to increase efficiency,” Scheiwiller says. “But adhesive technology is often only a small part of the entire production process and therefore tends to be somewhat ignored. We often see that industry experts don’t even realize how much they can improve things in this area.” He often sees his clients implementing adhesive technologies, but then failing to improve upon the processes, thereby missing a lot of opportunities. “The customers really need to receive some kind of training” on quality control as well as process optimization for automated production. Sika has a department for just that, headed by application engineer Andreas Hufschmid. He leads tours through the maze of machines. “Sika isn’t a machinery supplier for adhesive processes, but we cooperate with very well regarded mechanical engineering firms.”
The adhesive experts at Sika, Kager, and other manufacturers and purveyors, and their industrial clients, believe that adhesive technologies will only become even more important, especially as thin film modules – whether they’re made of glass or flexible plastics – continue their dominance. In light of this, knowledge of adhesives will also become more important for photovoltaics experts.

Rooftop as far as the eye can see. Here and there, light domes pop out of the giant green surface, which at 37,000 square meters is about as big as five soccer fields. Surrounded by vineyards and within sight of the A6 autobahn, it’s an ideal location for a warehouse. Two roofers shovel roofing granules and plants with yellow and purple flowers, roots and all, onto a motorized wheelbarrow, which makes a lot of noise as it slowly moves along on extra-wide tires. The roof must be “de-greened” where the rows of modules are to be installed. There’s already a lot of activity in the northern area of the roof. A crane lifts palettes of cement blocks onto the roof, which are then laid in farther on. Two workers screw installation frames securely to the strips of concrete, while others attach modules to metal clamps.
About 100 meters from the town of Kirchheim, which lies on one of Germany’s wine routes, stands one of 69 central warehouses throughout Germany used by discounter groups Aldi Süd (South) and Nord (North). One megawatt of photovoltaic capacity is to be installed on its roof. The discounter has been leasing out more than half of its warehouse roofs for photovoltaic installations since 2006. On Aldi Süd roofs alone, a capacity of about 26 megawatts – installed on more than 700,000 square meters – is already connected to the grid. Pohlen-Solar of Geilenkirchen in North Rhine-Westfalia, a company within the Pohlen Group, is the project planner. Because Pohlen employees have been taking care of Aldi’s roofs for over 40 years, no one knows better than they do how the roofs are constructed and when a solar installation makes sense.
By the end of the year, Pohlen will have installed photovoltaics on 80 percent of Aldi Süd roofs as well as a few Aldi Nord roofs. “Our goal is to use all of the distribution center roofs in the north and the south to produce solar power,” explains Igor Rauschen, Pohlen-Solar’s technical director for planning and building large photovoltaic arrays. Despite lower yield in northern locations, investments there would still pay off this year because of falling module prices.
Unlike other discounters’ warehouses, Rauschen says Aldi’s distribution centers have a significant advantage. He explains that Aldi insists on quality in all aspects, which includes ensuring that roofs have plenty of reserve load-bearing capacity. Most of the centers can handle the additional weight from the modules, including their anchoring ballasts, with no problems. Pohlen turned an Aldi roof into a solar power plant for the first time in 2005.
The discounter also stands out when it comes to roof sealing. “Other customers seal their warehouse roofs with just 1.5 millimeters of PVC. Aldi asks for two millimeters of Sarnafil. That’s the highest standard,” Rauschen emphasizes. Pohlen guarantees the flexible polyolefin (FPO) for 20 years. The PVC-free coating doesn’t become brittle and can therefore keep a roof sealed for 30 years. These figures point to excellent conditions for large-scale photovoltaic installations.

Germany’s largest solar fund

Actually, Pohlen-Solar had planned to start with smaller projects – but things didn’t go as planned. The roofers from Geilenkirchen jumped into the solar business by securing no less than Germany’s largest environmental fund. “Aldi received a lot of inquiries from potential leasers who wanted to install photovoltaics on its warehouses,” Rauschen says. “They were then directed to us.” Pohlen was in charge of giving technical approval for the additional use of the roofs, but the company didn’t want to lose its major customer to the competition. In 2006, Pohlen-Solar, along with DCM and Centrosolar, initiated a solar fund with which Pohlen leased 30 of Aldi’s large warehouse roofs in Germany and Spain, and equipped them with a capacity of about 23 megawatts. The investment firm DCM of Munich also bought other projects in Spain. Within a few months, DCM was able to advertise its shares to the public as a green financial investment. “Solarfonds 1” is currently the largest German environmental fund, with an investment sum of 170 million euros.

More kilowatts via quality assurance

Conditions for the solar fund’s success were optimal: a project planner sealing all the roofs itself with FPO films while providing a 20-year guarantee, and a client willing from the very beginning to lease out 30 large roofs. After all, there are many advantages to having only one lessor for an entire large-scale project; for example, the Pohlen Group had to draw up only one contract, thereby saving a significant amount of time and money.
In addition, the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) provides an important contribution to quality assurance. The photovoltaics experts not only issued the yield certificates required by the bank for the solar power plants, but also inspected the arrays once they had been connected to the grid and will monitor all 30 arrays for their service life. Project leader Klaus Kiefer works with Rauschen to carefully evaluate various array configurations. Using feedback from the Freiburg experts, Rauschen continues to draw more and more kilowatt-hours from his arrays. “For example, we built upon various inverter concepts, which allowed us to improve year after year,” Rauschen explains. “Inverter manufacturers no longer stand a chance at pulling the wool over our eyes.” Rauschen also carefully inspects module output from different manufacturers. Modules with crystalline cells from Solara, Suntech, and Kyocera are found on Aldi roofs, and Centrosolar is the partner for module supply. ISE staff measure a random sample of modules from every delivery on behalf of Rauschen. The module manufacturers have been informed about this practice. “The process has paid off,” Kiefer confirms. “Within a short time, we had nothing but modules labeled with a plus” – that is, modules that actually have an output slightly higher than what is listed in the data specifications, which can then increase an array’s performance by three to four percent.

Searching for systematic errors

Pohlen was founded in 1892. It is a mid-sized family-owned company, in its fifth generation. From a picture frame in the business’s foyer in Geilenkirchen, company founder Hermann Pohlen still gazes out upon visitors.
Klaus Kiefer of Fraunhofer ISE appreciates the conscientiousness Pohlen showed when starting its solar business in 2004. After all, not all project planners feel comfortable speaking as openly about their concepts as Pohlen does. Kiefer believes that this has to do with the company’s tradition-rich history. “Firms coming from the construction industry have completely different ideas about quality assurance. For them, third-party assessments are the status quo,” he explains. “Pohlen takes this issue very seriously and takes pains to constantly improve itself.”
Pohlen also uses wind tunnel experiments to optimize the design of its assembly supports (see pv magazine 08/2009).
Rauschen also feels that the cooperation with Fraunhofer has been very fruitful. Every six months, the civil engineer and his colleagues visit ISE in Freiburg for a quality workshop, where project planners and scientists discuss ways to improve array construction. And when people who know quite a bit about arrays come together with people who have quite a bit of scientific expertise, the event is very likely to be successful. Thanks to this cooperation, Rauschen was able to go from solar newbie to solar expert in just four years. But Kiefer and Fraunhofer ISE also benefit from analyzing this large project. “We have absolutely no idea what results we’ll get from monitoring, and that’s fascinating for us,” Kiefer explains. “Our analyses led to the discovery of a systematic error in a particular kind of inverter. All of those units are currently being replaced or modified.” In analyzing the real data, his institute has seen another confirmation of its work, since it has already found that actual output deviates from the certificates by only plus/minus two percent.
Very few project planners realize that the services provided by Fraunhofer ISE for quality assurance actually have a minimal effect on the budget for large megawatt arrays. Regardless, they certainly pay off, since constant monitoring can guarantee optimal operation and help prevent yield loss. “Of total system costs, monitoring comes to 0.4 percent of the investment total,” Kiefer calculates. “In operation, that’s about 0.2 percent of German feed-in compensation.” The banks are also pleased with the independent, monthly reports on photovoltaic array operation. Data for all arrays with outside financing will certainly be made more transparent in the future, but Kiefer understands that even private investors believe that when people and institutions invest large sums, they want clarity, not chaos.

Roof renovation for free

And how does Aldi benefit from the photovoltaic modules covering its roofs? As owners, Aldi Süd and Nord are only leasing their distribution center roofs – and this pays off. Whereas the others parties are shouldering the risk, the Aldi companies have received their rent at the outset – more than eight million euros.
The amount of rent for each roof depends on the quality of its location. Pohlen developed its own calculation process to separate the roofs into different categories. At optimal locations, Pohlen pays enough for the owner to potentially use the rent to finance roof renovation.
After the outside investors had utilized almost all of the distribution centers, the Albrecht brothers finally discovered photovoltaics for themselves – and for their store roofs. By last spring, in a pilot project, the discounter had a total of four megawatts of solar capacity installed on 59 grocery stores. In this process, Aldi has benefited from Pohlen’s experience and the network they have built up in the PV industry. Just four years ago, the Aldi companies rejected ideas for using store roofs; last year, they changed their minds. Customers from Mönchengladbach to Munich can now see the outcome. Pohlen installed 40 to 80 kilowatts each on the tiled roofs of select stores. All parties involved hope that investment will be approved for several hundred more PV arrays on store roofs starting in 2010. The roofing firm has compiled a “hit list” of over 900 locations for Aldi to choose from.
Display cases will give customers information about the solar yield produced on Aldi’s roofs and highlight the company’s environmental awareness. In 2008, Aldi was awarded the trade industry’s Energy Management Award for its photovoltaic installations and other energy conservation measures in its supermarkets.
“Aldi also gave us very strict structural specifications for the store arrays, and we had to re-measure all of the roof frames,” Rauschen emphasizes. Pohlen set up on-roof arrays on 20 slanted roofs; the remaining 39 would not have been able to handle the additional weight from the modules. On these roofs, Renusol’s in-roof system were used, which actually reduced roof loads – 30 kilograms per square meter – since every 50 kilograms of tiles are replaced by only 20 kilograms of PV modules. With an additional cost of 2.5 percent, the in-roof systems also make financial sense. “If something doesn’t pay off, Aldi wouldn’t do it,” Rauschen points out.
There has been a lot going on in Geilenkirchen. Since financing from the new solar fund wasn’t available until the summer, nine more large arrays on Aldi distribution centers were to be connected to the grid by the end of the year, and Pohlen-Solar’s team had to work at full speed. Following in the footsteps of Solarfonds 1, the nine arrays will constitute the smaller Solarfonds 3, which was issued in early October. It includes photovoltaic arrays of up to one megawatt of output on hall roofs, since large arrays are no longer profitable with the new German Energy Feed-in Act.
The distribution center in Kirchheim was also a recipient to this fund. Twenty workers completed the 32,200 square meters there in autumn. Once parts of the array were finished, electricians were able to connect them to the grid.
It takes a group of Pohlen employees about three months on location to install one megawatt on a roof and connect it to the grid; work is currently also being done in St. Augustin, Butzbach, and Eschweiler.

Huge potential

Since even Aldi roofs are finite, Pohlen is currently looking for other lessors with large areas. But not all hall roofs are structurally as sound as Aldi’s, so Pohlen has already developed its own installation system. According to the first calculations, the new modules will manage with a ballast of just 15 to 20 kilograms. “Almost every roof can handle that,” Rauschen says. “This will give us access to a lot of surfaces that otherwise wouldn’t have been options.”
The competition is certainly not ignoring the trend: Lidl and Rewe, two other large German discounters, are also looking into investments. In May, Lidl announced plans to spend a nine-figure sum installing photovoltaics on warehouses in Germany and other European countries. But even when Aldi, Lidl, and Rewe have no more space available, the potential for solar projects on Germany’s warehouses will still be huge. This installation in Tönisvorst was one of the first 59 photovoltaic arrays on Aldi store roofs to be connected to the grid.

One product sold by Hartmut Gross, Centrotherm’s thin film director, weighs 800 tons. And it takes him a full twenty minutes just to walk around the first model. Overall, seventy people were involved at different stages in assembling the 60 machines, with a total of 250 components, so that they will manufacture the best possible CIGS thin film modules. The production line is the first turnkey CIGS plant. It is designed to allow investors to set up large production capacities for this thin film technology, which proved most promising in the lab. When asked whether the new turnkey plant will constitute a breakthrough on the sluggish CIGS market, Gross gives the same logical answer that manufacturers of silicon thin-film turnkey plants have recently given: “That’s what we’re assuming.”
This new thin film technology has thus entered the competition recently launched by Applied Materials, Oerlikon Solar, Ulvac and other providers of silicon thin film. Over the past two years, they have been selling and constructing one turnkey plant after the other. The reason is obvious. Henning Wicht, analyst at iSuppli Deutschland, says that solar production remains an attractive market for the long term, and turnkey providers guarantee “proper returns on investments” even for newcomers to the industry. In contrast, those who develop the technology themselves run a great risk of going down expensive dead-end streets. But if you buy turnkey, you get the whole production plant with a guarantee. Indeed, Centrotherm does not even assume its customers will have special CIGS expertise. “All we expect is a team that can handle 60 machines after receiving our instructions,” Gross says. Nonetheless, analysts still have a hard time assessing how successful this new off-the-shelf plant will be.
CIGS stands for copper, indium, gallium, and selenium or sulfur. Some manufacturers only use selenium; others, only sulfur; some mix the two. And others leave out gallium. Centrotherm does not use sulfur. The various types also have different acronyms, but all run under the umbrella of CIS. And while there has not been any CIGS turnkey plant covering all processes based on the principle of “glass in, module out,” as Gross describes Centrotherm’s plant, the firm is not without competitors. Wicht says thin film will make up some 30 percent of the global module market by 2013, and competition for that market share is fierce.
Film modules made of cadmium-telluride by First Solar, for instance, are considered the price leaders. First Solar says its production costs are below one dollar per watt of module capacity – a very low rate. At the same time, these modules also have a high efficiency for thin film at nearly eleven percent.
But competitors of potential CIGS investors have expanded their capacities considerably over the past few years for silicon-based thin film modules. Today, they reach efficiencies of up to nine percent with tandem cells (see 07/2009). While there is no official word about production costs, they are probably quite a bit higher than those of First Solar.

Convincing quick start

Companies that manufacture CIGS modules or similar ones based on copper-indium using in-house technology with module efficiencies of up to twelve percent are directly competing with future Centrotherm customers (see 01/2009). Wicht says that Nanosolar, Showa Shell, Solibro and Misaole alone could each set up their own production lines with 10 – 150 megawatts over the next few years.
Centrotherm has, however, already shown how quickly a company can catch up. Known especially for its turnkey plants that produce crystalline cells, the southern German firm only entered the thin film sector in 2007. And their first pilot line only started running at the beginning of 2009 with an efficiency starting at six percent – a figure that the engineers did, however, manage to increase to above ten percent on 30 x 30 centimeter modules in just over six months. This efficiency varies slightly across the surface of the module. Centrotherm says cell efficiency in some spots even reaches 13 percent. “They were manufactured with the same process we use in mass production,” Gross explains. It should therefore also be possible to get very good efficiencies from serial production in future modules.
Crucially, the process that Centrotherm uses differs from those of other CIGS producers. Gross even claims their method is unique. He says that since the decisive steps do not have to take place in a vacuum, the manufacturing process is not only faster, but it is also much cheaper than conventional processes. The CIGS layer is a “compound semiconductor”; while the silicon in silicon thin film cells has semiconductor properties from the outset and merely has to be doped – a technical term meaning that foreign impurities are added – the individual elements of a CIGS layer only become a semiconductor during production. As a result, you have the freedom to tweak the compound in order to increase efficiency. On the other hand, it is hard to create large, homogenous layers – exactly what is needed for high efficiency – because the concentration of the layer’s components is not easy to control.
There are a number of ways to produce CIGS semiconductor layers. In the lab, experts have produced the greatest efficiency by heating up chemical elements and depositing them as vapor on the substrate. The elements then properly arrange themselves to produce the desired compound semiconductor. Miguel Contreras of the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, Colorado, has already reached more than twenty percent efficiency, and both Q-Cells’ subsidiary Solibro and Würth-Solar use this technology in mass production. Their mass-produced products have an efficiency of twelve percent. But as Gross points out, “they may have very high efficiencies, but it comes at the price of long process times”.
Manufacturers who use this co-evaporation technology are torn between the requirement to manufacture quickly and simultaneously keep quality high. But Miguel Contreras believes that this depends on the technology used in evaporation sources. “With the right equipment, the process can actually be very fast,” he says. For a long time, it was difficult to find adequate evaporation sources, but now large volume sources traditionally used in ultra high vacuum molecular beam epitaxy processes are finding their way into production equipment for Cu(In,Ga)Se2.
Because this co-evaporation technology is tricky, a number of firms use what are called “sequential processes”. First, they apply copper, indium, and gallium. In a second step, the unfinished cell is heated as selenium-hydrogen gas is added until the substances combine to form a semiconductor. And that takes a relatively long time. “Gallium has a tendency to diffuse over to the back-side electrode,” Gross explains. Efficiency decreases as a result.
While Centrotherm also uses a sequential process, Gross says the drawbacks have been overcome. The firm adds selenium before the second step – and not in a vacuum. Only then is the substrate onto which the metals have been deposited heated up to 500 degrees Celsius so that the elements combine to form the CIGS semiconductor. And that does not take place in a vacuum either. “Because we work with elementary selenium, no selenium-hydrogen molecule has to be split, and the selenium penetrates the layer faster,” he explains. “We can therefore achieve cycles of 60 seconds per 1.5 square meters of substrate. Every other process takes a lot longer.” And the speed of this process has a pleasant side effect: gallium does not have enough time to diffuse over to the back-side electrode, as it does in other sequential processes.

Good prospects

Centrotherm is currently still testing modules from its own pilot line, which are only 30 x 30 centimeters – unlike the 1.1 x 1.4 meter modules from the turnkey plant built in Taiwan. At PVSEC in Hamburg, Centrotherm presented results showing that these 30 x 30 centimeter modules have an efficiency of 11.2 percent on the average – less than the efficiency of modules already on the market. Nonetheless, Gross believes his products are competitive. The goal is twelve percent module efficiency by 2011.
There are indications that this target has already been reached. First, Centrotherm developers quickly reached ten percent efficiency after the jump from 0.5 square centimeter laboratory cells to the 30 x 30 square centimeter ones from the pilot line – quite impressive when you consider that the surface was increased more than a thousandfold. In contrast, 1.5 square meters is only around 15 times larger than the 30 x 30 square centimeter pilot modules, which suggests that the next jump will be easier. In addition, the company says that efficiency fluctuates little across the surface of the module. In their PVSEC publication, the authors write that if a homogenous coating is possible on 30 x 30 square centimeters, it should be possible on larger surfaces.
The customer in Taiwan (Centrotherm does not wish to reveal the name, but according to IT news service Digitimes, Sunshine PV of Taiwan recently installed a Centrotherm system) has a guarantee that the plant will produce modules with ten percent efficiency. The power yield is reportedly good. For next year, Centrotherm’s roadmap would have 30 x 30 square centimeter modules reaching twelve percent efficiency. Those who order a turnkey plant now can look forward to twelve percent efficiency by the end of 2011.

The remaining milestones

Aside from efficiency, production costs and upfront investment costs are decisive in determining whether a plant pays for itself. Gross says that the upfront investment costs and material costs for the CIGS turnkey plants are not as high as those for silicon thin film. He points out that silane gas makes up some ten to twenty percent of the costs for silicon thin film. “We are far below ten percent for absorber material costs,” Gross says.
On the other hand, silicon thin film is a step ahead when it comes to turnkey plants. “The plants are already up and running, and the first modules were shipped a year ago,” Henning Wicht says. “You get your initial results, some of which are good and some of which are not so good, and then you start looking into improvements.” Furthermore, those plants and modules are TÜV-certified. In contrast, Centrotherm still has to prove it can meet its targets.
But competition for lower production costs will probably be the biggest problem for Centrotherm, which will have to keep up with First Solar’s plants. The U.S. firm has one major advantage: with production capacities exceeding a gigawatt, procurement is cheaper than for small producers, who cannot buy in bulk. And this advantage is hard for an investor to compensate for regardless of how big plans are. “But if I find a customer who wants a gigawatt plant, then the costs will be lower than with First Solar today,” Gross believes.
If Centrotherm makes good on this and other claims in practice, Wicht believes that the firm will be successful. “They simply have to have prices competitive with First Solar,” he explains. “And if the efficiency is as good or better than First Solar’s, then the CIGS turnkey line will be an even bigger success than that of Applied and Oelikon two years ago.”
Investors will certainly not be hard to find. He believes that some 30 gigawatts of photovoltaics will be newly installed in 2013, a figure that attracts investors. In addition, new solar markets are opening up, such as in South Africa, Arab countries, and India. “We are thus seeing more local producers popping up, often big corporations from the electronics industry who do not know a lot about solar,” he says. Exactly the kind of customer that would be interested in turnkey CIGS – provided that Centrotherm can meet its targets.

Modesty sounds somewhat different. “I made new areas of science that will be kept going by a lot of people,” says Stanford Ovshinsky. He has good reason to say so. Not least because it was his work that enabled today’s boom in thin film technology, and because of the rapid rise of Uni-Solar thin film modules manufactured by Electronic Conversion Devices (ECD), the company he founded, that may have surprised many of his contemporaries.
While other thin film companies are ramping up their first production lines, ECD can look back on more than ten years of experience. And ECD’s product doesn’t only have one of the highest efficiencies of any silicon thin film module, but they are also flexible. Flexible Uni-Solar thin film solar laminates have been installed on roofs as building-integrated and building-applied systems since 1997. They are distinguished by their flexibility and light weight that result in lower installation and shipping costs, and their unbreakability. Their current efficiency of 8.3 percent is astoundingly high for silicon thin film, and according to Senior VP Subhendu Guha, the company sees a clear roadmap of how to go to ten percent.
Ovshinsky’s success story is neither a typical nor an easy one. It began in the 1950s with news that took the scientific establishment by surprise. At that time, physicists were still working spellbound by the current understanding of the ordered structures of crystalline materials, which had recently grown with the discovery of quantum theory. This was the atmosphere into which Ovshinksy burst with his discovery of the new science of amorphous materials. In those, the atoms are not ordered, as they are in crystalline materials, but disordered. It was a long way from first understanding their behavior, to developing the first amorphous silicon alloy, to producing Uni-Solar modules. At the beginning, there was nothing but a vision.
“There were many theorists who said that these materials can’t be semiconductors,” remembers Hellmut Fritzsche, a University of Chicago Louis Block Professor of Physics, Emeritus. Keeping in mind that crystalline structures had recently (1947) enabled the invention of the transistor makes it easier to understand the high resistance that Ovshinsky’s invention provoked among the scientific establishment. “Stan opened up a new field of materials science. What was really new was exploring how the electrons of non-crystalline materials behave,” Fritzsche explains. Within a few years, Ovshinsky would soon be joined by a group of well-known scientists, such as Nobel laureates Isadore I. Rabi and Sir Nevil Mott, and Fritzsche himself, who worked together to map out the new physics that by the 1970s enabled Ovshinsky to develop thin film amorphous silicon alloys for ECD’s thin film solar cells.

One principle, many applications

Ovshinsky was the focal point of this curiosity-driven society for good reason, when one hears Lillian Hoddeson. She describes his way of thinking as a remarkable, intuitive “way of solving problems using analogy, outrageous analogy that crosses disciplines that most people wouldn’t dare to cross.” The history professor at the University of Illinois is writing a biography of Ovshinksy.
Ovshinsky’s interest in amorphous materials was stimulated by analogy, when in the late 1940s and 50s, he drew one between neurology and electronics that cleared the way into materials that can be deposited as thin film. Ovshinsky saw that when a neuron – a single nerve cell – is stimulated by an impulse, its semi-permeable membrane, which is charged positively on the outside and negatively on the inside, increases and becomes conductive. “The nerve cell and synapse are disordered surfaces that have active sites on them that permit communication in a cooperative way,” says Ovshinsky. He began modeling a neuron by making very thin layers of amorphous films of transition metal oxides such as sulfur, selenium and tellurium – elements known as chalcogenides – and built an amorphous thin film switch he called the Ovitron. Like the neuron, it switches between conducting and non-conducting states when triggered by a low current, switching and modulating high-amperage AC circuits. His genius, says physicist, solar pioneer and old friend Klaus Thiessen, “lies in his ability to feel, not only to understand, how this switching effect can be transferred to another field, to solar cells and computer memory.”
Ovshinsky thus discovered that by applying a low voltage to special types of glassy thin films he could turn them into new types of semiconductors. This phenomenon became known as the Ovshinsky Effect. He would continue working with chalcogenides, and developed further types of electronic and optical switches, such as the Ovonic phase-change memory, which became the basis for rewritable CDs and DVDs. While crystalline researchers were working with bulk materials, he joined many elements together, not only with chalcogenides, but with silicon and germanium, which would be developed into amorphous, nano-structured materials. Then by using a light flexible metallic substrate such as nickel with these materials, he developed a process of manufacturing flexible PV thin film by the mile.
Anyone would assume that Ovshinky has advanced university degrees in physics, neurology and chemistry. What is astounding is that he has no formal education at all. He educated himself. His friends and colleagues attribute his achievements and ability to comprehend the nature and characteristics of the elements precisely to this lack of academic training. Hoddeson explains this exceptional mind pointedly: “He is unconstrained by the disciplinary machinery, because he was never taught to look at problems the way people are taught to look at problems in particular disciplines, and he begins with creative conceptions rather than the standard academic core conceptions.” When Ovshinsky finished high school and went to work in Akron, Ohio, in tool and machinery shops, his scientific knowledge was already advanced from his own aggressive and absorbing reading alone. “Self-education frees him of the way formally educated people compartmentalize what they know into separate areas,” says Hoddeson.

Early formations

The way his mind works is one part of the equation; the second part is his social commitment, which began taking shape during his childhood. His parents emigrated from parts of Czarist Russia to Akron, Ohio, the bastion of the American rubber industry. Stanford R. Ovshinsky was born in 1922, and grew right up into a period of labor movements. “The goings on in the world of the 1930s, particularly in the streets and factories of Akron, were more interesting to me than school,” he remembers. Ovshinsky Senior fed his family by collecting scrap metal, and helped organize the Akron branch of the Workmen’s Circle, an organization of Jewish immigrants whose deeply-held values emphasize community and social justice to overcome challenges of worker exploitation, tenement housing, as well as dealing with challenges of cultural assimilation. What Ovshinsky learned from the Workmen’s Circle greatly shaped his social consciousness and values, and he remains a member of the organization’s national executive board until today. “I started my activities when there was truly class warfare in the United States. I believed in changing the world for the better and was active in labor, civil rights, civil liberties and all the things that would make a difference for people who work,” Ovshinksy says.
He translated these social convictions into the role he gives science and technology; he believes they are inextricable and essential to civilization and that every nation needs industry to alleviate its own problems. He dedicated himself to innovations ultimately intended to meet the world’s energy needs with PV manufactured at a cost of less than 40 U.S. cents per watt-peak. He puts it in practical terms: “If the cost doesn’t come down then it isn’t going to be an industry. And you need volume to get the cost down.”

Iris and the ECD years

Ovshinsky’s colleagues from way back never speak for long without talking about Dr. Iris Ovshinsky, his wife from 1959 until her tragic death while swimming in 2006. Hoddeson describes her as Ovshinsky’s enabler. They met in 1955, and their similar backgrounds – she grew up in an anarchist-socialist colony in Peekskill, New York – and passionate social motivations, joined them inseparably. With formal academic training and a PhD, she had the know-how to produce scientific papers, and he had the genius. They decided to apply his science and technology to make a better world. In 1960, they founded Energy Conversion Laboratory (ECL) in a Detroit storefront, a company committed to researching and developing his principle of amorphous and disordered materials into energy and intelligence technologies that could alleviate pollution, curtail climate warming, ease unemployment, and end wars over oil.
They financed the company with their own savings while he continued his work in switches based on neuron emulation. By 1963, however, the end of their savings was in sight. In order to get public funding for the company, Ovshinsky called John Bardeen, the co-inventor of the transistor who won the Nobel Prize for physics twice – in 1956 and 1972 – to validate the importance of his work. Bardeen could not come himself, but sent Fritzsche to examine the completely symmetric semiconductor made from disordered materials, at a time when all semiconductors were non-symmetric and were made from completely different materials.
What Fritzsche saw when he looked into the oscilloscope – the back-and-forth switching from extremely high resistance to extremely high conducting state – completely amazed him: “One gets hooked,” he says 48 years later, and from that point on began encouraging other scientists to come to ECL.
License money started coming in from various companies, which Ovshinsky promptly invested back into research. He has over 400 patents to date. The Ovshinskys changed the company name to Energy Conversion Devices (ECD). In 1964, they moved to larger quarters in Troy and continued developing electronic memory devices, and an environmentally friendly nickel-metal hydride battery that has been broadly used in laptops, digital cameras, cell phones, and enabled the electric and hybrid cars, reversible hydrogen storage, and solar cells.
By the 1970s, Ovshinsky was developing a new kind of amorphous silicon alloy for thin film solar cells that ultimately became ECD’s cash-cow. Ovshinsky argued for and achieved by-the-mile production of flexible solar panels. The first continuous prototype production machine was built in 1981; it produced thin film for solar calculators in a joint venture with Sharp, along with a variety of battery-charging applications. In 1986, there was a one-kilowatt machine, ten years later a two-megawatt line. In 1990, the company established United Solar Ovonic (USC), its PV product subsidiary. USC met the late 90s expanding U.S. PV market with a robust manufacturing technique, that is, a five-megawatt machine. But the growing market also required a more evolved generation of solar cells.
ECD emphasizes that the most significant step in the development of its thin film technology came in 1997 with the introduction of the triple junction product. The third junction enables the cell to capture a greater percentage of incident light energy, contributing significantly to the higher efficiencies and energy output, particularly in diffused light and lower sunlight situations. It provides relatively high levels of efficiency and stability (a stabilized aperture area cell efficiency of 8.0 to 8.5 percent). Each cell is composed of three semiconductor layers deposited on a five mil thick sheet of stainless tell, to absorb the entire light spectrum. The lowest cell absorbs the red light, the middle cell the green-yellow light and the top cell absorbs the blue light. But higher efficiency is only half of the picture. As Ovshinsky says: “Uninterrupted continuous production is an absolute necessity for the lowest cost products.”

Politics nixes PV revolution

A press release put out by United Solar Ovonic peaked the interest of Horst-Dieter Braehmig – then Mayor of the German city Hoyerwerda, just when he decided to bring a solar industrial facility to the region. His advisors reviewed diverse PV technologies and chose Ovonic thin film, impressed by its silicon-independence, its high efficiency even during weak sunshine (Hoyerwerda gets little sun), the most progressive production process, and the broadest diversity of applications in building-integration and roofing in private houses and industrial buildings. Braehmig traveled to Detroit in 2004 and made the final decision based on getting to know Ovshinsky: “The chemistry between us was right,” Braehmig says. “Getting to know him gave me a look into the future.”
Ovshinsky visited Hoyerswerda in early 2005 where they signed a letter of intent with the State Council. Braehmig got the preparations immediately underway and finalized every detail; from Germany’s side came the firm offer of 30 million U.S. dollars in subsidy. But just as every detail was in place, and Hoyerswerda had fulfilled the requirements set by USC, the USC board vetoed the investment in Germany. In Ovshinsky’s estimation: “the board was only inclined to Wall Street.” In Braehmig’s analysis, the decision reflected the energy politics arising in the U.S. under the Bush administration; the U.S. must do more to help itself nationally. Ovshinsky refers to this event as his greatest disappointment: “I wanted solar energy to be used as an instrument to attack unemployment, build new industries, re-industrialize areas so that there could be the kind of scientific jobs that feed back into the education system.”

The new one-gigawatt machine

Ovshinsky stepped down from ECD in 2007, one year following Iris’ death, to launch his new company, Ovshinsky Innovation LLC (OI), based in an old schoolhouse behind his private home. His work focuses on using the same amorphous materials with multi-junctions that can take the sun’s entire spectrum. His intention: to propel the transition to electricity generation by making solar energy cheaper than coal electricity.
What will make the thin film technology competitive to fossil fuel is its speed of production. By increasing the throughput within the same floor space taken up by a 100-megawatt machine, maintains Ovshinsky, the production capacity of the new machine would be 30 times greater, achieving one gigawatt or beyond, thus reaching the economy of scale necessary to ultimately generate electricity at a cost lower than fossil fuel. The one-gigawatt machine would realize Ovshinsky’s over 50-year-old goal. “I’m trying to solve the problems of the world by making solar energy cheaper than coal. My way of changing the world since 1960 is by using science and technology, my past and present ideas of social justice.”
While the new venture can tap into an enormous pool of outstanding engineers, physicists, machine makers and business people, who became true believers in Ovshinsky’s work, the search for partners continues. His idea of a gigawatt plant meets with a lot of disbelief, but that had always been the case with Ovshinsky’s visions. They generally had taken about twenty years before materializing into information storage devices, hydrogen storage, and e-car batteries that will change how we live.

In the run up to the 2009 UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen, the European Union (EU) had committed its member states to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by at least twenty percent by 2020. Photovoltaics are to play an important role in this plan: in ten years, 20 percent of the European electricity supply shall be generated by photovoltaics. That’s an ambitious objective. “We’re talking about 390 gigawatts, after all,” calculates Henning Wicht, an analyst at iSuppli Deutschland, a Munich-based consultancy and market research institute. In the lead up to the Copenhagen summit conference, Wicht advised the European Commission on its Roadmap 2020. With the Roadmap, the European Union clearly took up a position as a driving force in climate change negotiations. According to iSuppli’s calculation, the European Union’s target would require 102.61 gigawatts of photovoltaic capacity newly installed in EU member states in 2020 alone. The real power mix is still well short of this objective, however, as cumulative solar power in the 27 EU member states last year was only just 13.57 gigawatts.
To get up to 390 gigawatts in 2020, cumulative output will have to rise by 35.70 percent annually. The European Commission’s Roadmap 2020 bases its solar power targets largely on the objectives of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA). But the forecasts of various experts are now based on even stronger growth of the European photovoltaics market for the next few years. “The actual installations are currently running better in practice than they would have to under the Strategic Energy Technology Plan,” explains Wicht. And that's in spite of the growth slump in 2009.

Unforeseen

The Basel-based Bank Sarasin, for example, forecasts more growth than the optimistic EPIA scenario in its current 2009 solar study, with 28 gigawatts of newly installed capacity for 2013. “Prices have moved downwards in recent months at such a tremendous rate that economic rather than political arguments favor photovoltaics,” adds Sarasin analyst, Matthias Fawer. “And the extent of that trend wasn’t foreseen a year ago.” Fawer says there has been a broader global anchoring of the photovoltaics industry. “We’re no longer restricted to just Germany and Japan, and, in the year before last, Spain, which had a brief spurt that was again stifled because of a political decision.” The experts at Bank Sarasin believe that something like eight to ten national markets with an annual growth of more than 500 megawatts of new installations will arise in the next two or three years (see article page 32), thus putting photovoltaics on a more solid foundation. “This dynamism and this broad support led us to our high forecast for 2013.”
But extrapolating developments into the future may not give true answers. For their own scenario, the market researchers at iSuppli took the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris as their starting point. Projecting a worldwide trend that is very similar to what the European Commission sees for its member nations, they arrive at even more newly installed output starting in 2019. “And we’ve also developed a third approach,” says Wicht. “By adding up the current international objectives of governments for photovoltaics by 2020, we’ve calculated resulting output figures. China and India, for example, aim to have installed approximately 20 gigawatts in 2020.” This political scenario makes worldwide installed output only a quarter of the amount the other scenarios yield for 2020.

An attainable objective

Which version is more realistic, more likely to happen? Henning Wicht believes it won’t be the one based on political guidelines, because not all countries issue guidelines for photovoltaics. Even in the past, he says, political objectives have been well outstripped. “If you look at old EPIA figures, you can see they were always surpassed.” He thinks the other two scenarios probably come closer to reality. If some 120 gigawatts are installed around the world in 2020, forecasts Wicht, Europe will make up approximately 70 to 80 percent of that figure – some 84 to 96 gigawatts. This amount isn’t all that far from the 102 gigawatts in the European Commission’s Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET Plan) for 2020.
Therefore, iSuppli considers the European Roadmap attainable. It points out, however, that certain energy policy conditions will have to be met first. Even after grid parity is reached, solar power won’t initially be able to make a large contribution without environmental protections.
Wicht believes that the free play of market forces can’t be allowed to operate for the foreseeable future. “It will still take more time for grid parity to be reached on the production side; for instance, when power station operators can genuinely compete with a gas-fired power stations.”
He says a guaranteed feed-in tariff and guarantees of power sales are also important. Grids will have to be upgraded so they can accept the growing supply of solar power at all times, especially at peak times when many photovoltaic systems simultaneously provide maximum energy yields due to intense insolation. If there were restrictions on the allowance of surging supplies of solar power, the possible yields, especially of large solar farms, would deteriorate. Generating solar power would become less attractive, so the industry would grow more slowly. iSuppli furthermore argues for opening up national grids to create a European-wide grid to better balance out supply peaks and bottlenecks. The grids should moreover be isolated from the traditional energy suppliers to prevent conflicts of interest.

Politicians have to help

“We need the right policy to guide power suppliers in the right direction,” says Fawer. “For example, on the question of which electricity has priority.” He says that renewables will have to be given their fixed place everywhere and not just serve as gap fillers. “What’s involved is a totally new configuration of the grid in which there is no longer a differentiation between base load and peak load. If it’s intelligently controlled, a few nuclear power stations that provide the base load can be done away with.” Experts agree with the politicians in the European Commission that internal consumption (net-metering) should likewise be stimulated, thereby further decentralizing the generation of energy and economizing on grid capacity.
Fawer believes that political structural conditions and practical objectives for climate protection could help photovoltaics. Bank Sarasin’s solar study for 2009 says that the positioning of the solar industry within the SET Plan is of enormous significance, and that the EU Commission wants to push ahead with the strategic development of the entire energy domain in Europe. For this purpose, it’s putting up some of the money for research and development. Fawer says that although this is important for maintaining the high annual growth rate of 35.70 percent after 2013, it’s still crucial for the photovoltaic industry to reach critical mass, which would also make it interesting for conventional companies like Bosch, Siemens and utilities. The consequence would be to generate its own dynamism, since the PV industry can produce at lower cost, allowing research and development to finance itself.
Fawer says Europe was well prepared for the climate conference and did its homework with Roadmap 2020, which could continue to serve as a model in climate protection. Its concerted approach and timetable for renewables, including photovoltaics, have enabled the formulation of climate targets. As a result, the solar industry is more optimistic now than it has been for a long time.

Solar Power Corporation initiated its plan to market solar cells on earth around the time the world’s space programs were winding down after the completion of the United States’ Apollo program, which was capped by the historic moon walk. Those associated with the space race began to worry about their professional futures. To ameliorate the gloomy prospects, NASA entered the terrestrial photovoltaics field, approaching it as another mission, like the moon shot. It hoped to recycle its engineers and thus keep its workers employed. NASA believed that a large government appropriation would solve everything.
For those unaccustomed to the NASA-aerospace culture, “This approach was an eye opener,” confessed Dr. Allan Rothwarf (deceased). He recollected that the principal presentations at one NASA-sponsored conference were given by an engineer from Texas Instruments and a scientist from RCA. Both gave an analysis of “what it would take to make photovoltaics economically viable” for supplying electrical power to America’s homes, businesses, and factories. According to Rothwarf, the engineer argued that “a subsidy of one billion U.S. dollars was needed between 1973 and the year 2000, preferably given to a single company – Texas Instruments – so that they could learn how to make photovoltaics economically … The RCA scientist’s presentation was pretty similar, though he only needed half a billion!”
In sharp contrast to the desire for the government to underwrite the American photovoltaics industry, Elliot Berman, who testified before Congress at that time, countered, “There is no need for federal support for the business … At the present time, there exists a commercially viable business based on utilizing silicon photovoltaic devices to provide power in places on earth where sunlight is available and other forms of energy expensive.” As an example, Berman informed Congress that “solar energy is [already] being successfully converted to electricity [to] … power … navigation warning lights and horns on unmanned offshore platforms and maritime buoys worldwide.” If Congress really wanted to help the photovoltaics industry grow commercially, Berman suggested that the federal government make policy changes that would benefit the American people rather than provide handouts to the industry. For example, he urged Congress to require warning lights and guards wherever a railroad track and a roadway intersected. Such a policy, Berman argued, would both save lives and promote photovoltaics because many of the 175,000 unprotected crossings in the United States at the time were located far from any source of electricity.
Though Berman’s words did not persuade the government to act, in 1974 a salesman at Solar Power, who had previously been employed in the railroad industry, convinced the higher-ups at Southern Railway to try an experimental panel to power a crossing signal near Rex, Georgia. Not convinced that these newfangled wafers could power much of anything, railroad workers connected the solar array to a utility line for backup. “All of us were a little bit skeptical of the technology,” stated Bob Mitchell, who worked for the Southern for many years. But, a funny thing happened in Rex, Georgia, that turned quite a few heads. On several occasions that winter, ice buildup caused the wires to fall. And the only electricity for miles around came from the solar array. “Just the reverse of what they [had] expected happened,” chortled Arthur Rudin, who had installed the panels and who periodically checked the installation. “That’s what sold them on the technology.” Or as Bob Mitchell stated, “Rex, Georgia, taught the Southern that solar worked.”
While the solar experiment continued to purr along at Rex, the Southern Railway found itself on the horns of a dilemma at the Lake Pontchartrain trestle near New Orleans. Colored signal lights had been recently installed, and they required more current. Bringing in utility power was out of the question. “It’s just swamp out there for miles,” according to Bob Mitchell. To sink poles into the lake would have cost a fortune, and they could not be placed on the adjacent levee because flood control regulations would not permit it. Instead the Southern tried a thermo-electric generator powered by LP (Liquid Propane) gas. Unfortunately, it attracted swarms of mosquitoes from the swamp reeds at dusk. They would fly over the flue, singe their wings, and fall into the generator. Enough mosquito bodies accumulated to clog the engine’s air intakes.
No amount of spraying could keep the mosquitoes away, so the railroad gave up on thermal generators and tried non-rechargeable primary batteries.
Along the Southern, the track maintenance crews built their own primary batteries from a recipe that called for water and sulfuric acid poured into a jar that contained a lead plate. Each signal required thirty-two jar-batteries, which together weighed over six hundred pounds. The homemade batteries worked, but they were a high-maintenance item. On Lake Pontchartrain, the batteries cost more to make and maintain than elsewhere on the Southern because fresh water had to be carted out to the signal site; the lake’s salt water would not suffice. So the Southern Railway was forced to search for another power source.
“Our experience with solar power at Rex, Georgia, had been good,” commented J.T. Hudson (deceased), an executive in the Southern’s Communications and Signals Division, “so we decided to give solar a try.” That decision was made in 1975 and “the panels are still working,” attests Bob Mitchell, who was at the site when they were first installed. The only worry is salt spray buildup. If the salt coating gets too thick, the panels don’t charge the accompanying batteries well. “You get a little soap and water and wash the panels and rinse them off. It’s that simple,” Mitchell said. “Then they’re good for another two or three months.”
The success at Lake Pontchartrain increased the Southern’s confidence in the technology and the railroad expanded its use, especially into track circuitry. Analogous to air traffic control, the objective of track circuitry is to keep trains at a reasonable distance from one another to prevent head-on collisions or back-enders. The presence of a train changes the rate of an electric current that runs through the track. A decoder picks up that change, translates it, and then throws signals and switches up and down the track to ensure safe passage for all trains in the vicinity. Prior to 1976, the Southern used its non-rechargeable jar-batteries to power track circuitry, too. But not only did the labor-intensive technology make these batteries costly, new government rules, like those regulating battery disposal offshore, upped the ante. As Bob Mitchell explained, “Until the environmentalists got strong, we could just throw the sulfuric acid on the side of the tracks. But you better not be caught doing that anymore! We can’t even dispose of the batteries ourselves. We have to have somebody come in and do it for us.” Just as in the case of offshore platforms, environmentally sound procedures prescribed by law brought photovoltaics to the fore.
Another government mandate put photovoltaics on the rooftops of some of the Southern’s cabooses. A federal regulation adopted in 1976 stipulated rear-end lighting for trains. Long-range cabooses already carried enough power to easily comply, but those on local runs did not. The railway first tried to generate the needed electricity by attaching a fan belt to the rear axle of the caboose. As the train went down the track, the fan belt would rotate and produce electricity. But the belt fell off all the time, and the constant vibrating tore the generator system apart. Again, the Southern turned to photovoltaics. By early 1979, twelve experimental solar installations were in service. They worked so well that the Southern converted all eighty of its local-service cabooses to photovoltaic power. “So far as we know,” remarked John F. Norris, the Southern’s General Superintendent of Communications and Signals, “this is the first use of solar on trains.”
Despite the success in Rex, Georgia, the Southern Railway has not put solar to work powering warning devices at its other unprotected grade crossings in remote locations. That is because the federal government has yet to require them. Nonetheless, some grade crossings in the United States are photovoltaic-powered, such as along the Burlington Northern Santa Fe’s track in eastern Arizona and near Phoenix. “Obviously, this area is a prime candidate for any solar application” because of the year-round abundance of sunshine,” according to James Le Vere, manager of special projects for the railroad. To bring utility power to these locations “would have cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. In addition, the number of people using the roads” that cross the tracks “is very high,” Le Vere added, but the railroad “traffic is significantly less than we would expect on a normal main line”. Hence, the crossing signals along this line operate just a few times each day, which assures that the solar electricity stored in the batteries will always be sufficient. In general, though, especially in the more northerly latitudes, railroads have shied away from using photovoltaics at crossings. “Should the batteries fail and you don’t know about it, you’re in deep trouble,” Le Vere stated. “You’re talking about the motoring public and law suits. The liability is just too high.”
Solar power, though, has helped railroads free themselves from the burden of utility poles, which require constant vigilance and maintenance. In the early days, telegraph lines were usually installed at the same time that the railroad tracks were put in. Messages sent through the wires by telegraph and later by telephone kept stations informed of arrivals, delays, track conditions, and other matters paramount to the safe and smooth functioning of a railway. By the mid-1970s, wireless microwave technology could do the same, rendering telecommunications through wires obsolete. The Kansas City Southern led the movement to uproot this antiquated technology, because the power lines along its tracks in Louisiana and Arkansas had proved particularly difficult to keep up. The long growing season in that region made extra work for the maintenance crews. “We had to fight vegetation, we had to fight pole rot, we had to fight the damage done by hurricanes,” complained Stanley Taylor, communications and signaling engineer for the Kansas City Southern. “We had to fight everything that goes with a lot of sun and rain.”
Taylor admitted that his company would have preferred that an electric utility extend its service to run the track circuitry with commercial power after the poles had been removed. However, it could not justify spending thousands of dollars to electrify low-power equipment because the expenditure would never have been recouped. The Kansas City Southern rejected stand-alone diesels as a substitute power source because, as Taylor stated, “Diesel generators are an inefficient, outmoded technology.” So in 1977 the railway chose to use photovoltaics to run its signals and switches whenever it could not connect to commercial power.
Other railroads have followed suit, though it has taken time and effort to learn how to properly apply the new technology. In the northern states, railroads have struggled with learning how to work with photovoltaics. They need to keep the accompanying batteries well-charged during the short days and frequent cloudy periods of winter, while not overcharging them in summer when the sun rises at five in the morning and sets around nine at night. The Kansas City Southern solved this conundrum by hinging an extra panel to an existing one. The auxiliary panel can be easily raised and supported so it can work alongside the permanent panel on days of minimum sunshine; during summer, it can be dropped from the sun’s view to prevent overcharging the batteries. When tracks run through a canyon, increasing the size of an array or elevating it compensates for the shading.
“Over the years, the railroads learned a great deal about installing photovoltaic systems,” James Le Vere testified, “and have made great strides toward increasing their reliability. Most railroads now consider the use of photovoltaics to power installations an attractive alternative to commercial power, depending upon utility charges to put in a line.” The railroads’ turn to solar did not arise “out of a sense of social responsibility,” according to Le Vere. “It just meets their needs” better than any other power source depending on the situation.

If you travel to Las Vegas for photovoltaics, the first things to engage you are colorful, shiny slot machines, and a world of glitz as far as the eye can see. But in the conference rooms of Caesar’s Palace on Boulevard South, the focus was on business. For two days in the middle of December, everything here revolved around technology, markets, financing, and the production and development of utility-scale photovoltaics. About 200 participants, mostly from the U.S., took part in Solarpraxis’ first PV Power Plants 2009 – USA conference. Presentations covered everything from mounting and substructures to inverters and grid connections, project development, markets and financing, product application and quality issues, quality standards in construction and project management, and legal and insurance matters. “Our concern is to impart essential expertise in order to limit risks and optimize investment for large-scale solar power plants,” emphasized Tina Barroso Guerra, Solarpraxis AG’s head of strategic business development for North America.
Practical experience took center stage. For instance, Stephen Smith of Solvida Energy Consulting demonstrated the importance of carefully considered logistics for the setup of large-scale solar plants. “The importance of workflow optimization in large-scale projects is often underestimated,” underscored Smith. He showed that, based on a 40-hour workweek, it takes 139 trucks and nine weeks to offload and install modules with a nominal capacity of just 15 megawatts. Sufficient storage area has to be set aside for containers; access roads have to be optimally planned; and vans have to be provided for the transport of workers. Water and beverage supply and trash disposal have to be ensured, and industrial safety and regulations on work hours observed, especially in the U.S., with its strong unions.
Steve Rhoades, chief executive officer of Satcon Technology Corporation, described how the efficiency level of central inverters for large-scale arrays can be optimized, such as by combining them with DC to DC converters and power line communications.
The profitability of two-axle tracker systems was a hot topic in light of lower prices for crystalline modules. The importance of thorough project calculation and location assessment became quite clear.
With or without trackers, large-scale solar power plants are in vogue in the U.S., despite the continuing financial crisis, as evidenced by rising land prices in the Southwest, a region considered particularly attractive for large-scale ground arrays due to the intensive insolation.
###MARGINALIE_BEGIN###

###MARGINALIE_END###

Between the green of the cornfields and the yellow of the rapeseed plants, a blue glow emanating from fields and meadows is becoming an increasingly common sight. According to a study by EuPD Research, ground-mounted systems in Germany accounted for at least 19 percent of newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2009. In absolute figures, at least 450 megawatts were installed on arable land, landfill sites, or military conversion areas. This figure includes large-scale projects, such as the 53-megawatt capacity Turnow-Preilack solar farm north of Cottbus (see 09/2009).
Ground-mounted systems are also being built more frequently in many other countries. According to a recent study by Sarasin Bank, Italy, Spain and South Africa will be the most attractive markets this year for extensive ground-mounted systems from a rated capacity over one megawatt. For instance, at two percent, annual tariff degression in Italy is much lower than in Germany. In Spain, on the other hand, total installed capacity was capped; but it is likely that the country will see the first projects implemented without additional feed-in tariffs. And these projects will pay off thanks to high levels of irradiance. According to Sarasin Bank, the combination of high irradiance and generous feed-in tariffs (35 cents per kilowatt hour) makes South Africa particularly attractive for ground-mounted PV systems.
In view of this development, it comes as no surprise that the market for mounting systems has grown strongly. It has also become quite complex. Planners face the problem of choosing between different sizes, foundations and static dimensions. The planners first specify which type of ground-mounted system is to be built. And the choices are vast. Panels, for example, can be mounted in one to three vertical rows, or up to six horizontal rows. With regard to system providers, the trend is moving increasingly towards larger panel tables consisting of an ever-increasing number of rows in order to save on materials and costs. However, there are also reasons to stick to smaller units. While the costs incurred for mounting racks are higher, installation costs are lower. After all, at a maximum installation height of just 2.30 meters, it is still easy to assemble the top panel row manually. Otherwise, machines are often required.

Olive trees as yardsticks

K&S engineers from Regensburg follow this approach. “We have changed from a three-row to a two-row design to obtain official approval,” comments Anton Krammel, public relations officer at K&S. He explains that relationships with communities and critics are smoother when arrays are placed closer to the ground. “The mayor must explain the project clearly to local residents; otherwise they will form citizens’ initiatives to work against us.” Felix Rasch from Geosol has also had plenty of experience with stringent height restrictions – not in Bavaria, but rather on the other side of the Alps in Apulia. “Scenery is a key issue for Italians. Module areas must not be taller than olive trees,” he says.
Once the height issue has been clarified, the proper foundation is the next item on the agenda. The very first solar farms often had strip foundations. However, the grey concrete blocks that run along the ground beneath the panels are not the most attractive solution. Apart from that, the heavy material must be transported and disposed of again when the life cycle of the solar power station comes to an end – not an easy undertaking, because cracked concrete is regarded as hazardous waste. Solar farm customers, therefore, more and more frequently turn down this type of soil sealing.
“This is a major issue, especially in Germany, Italy and Spain,” comments Andreas Steckeler of K2 mounting system manufacturer in Weil der Stadt, Germany. Therefore, since late last year, K2, like other companies, has used ground anchors known as screw foundations. “Ninety percent of clients today order screw foundations.” But this is not the only way of avoiding the unpopular concrete blocks. The same applies to ramming foundations, which are an alternative option to screw foundations on most solar systems, as the market survey shows.
Both ramming and screw foundations direct the wind and snow loads into the ground. Whereas the ramming foundation is hammered noisily 2.50 meters into the ground, a small engine winds the screw-in foundation into the ground with less force. At the same time, Doma’s standard screw-in foundation is only 1.65 meters long, with a diameter of seven to eight centimeters. K&S is impressed with this bolting technology, because, as Anton Krammel explains, “The screw-in foundation can absorb greater loads and is more attractive.” Screw-in foundation manufacturer Terrafix states that casting concrete is not required, not even on rocky subsoils. And the ground screws can easily be removed from the ground after they are no longer in operation. Mecasolar, from Navarra in Spain, offers direct bolting as an alternative to concrete footings. Mecasolar welcomes this solution’s shorter installation periods, its eco-friendly approach and easy dismantling process. Even advocates of ramming systems prefer to use ground screws in difficult terrain, such as especially loose soil.
Mounting systems provider Schletter considers ramming foundation systems to be the most economical solution, but only for large-scale installations. “As soil samples have to be taken in a number of places, ramming foundations are not worthwhile for small systems” says Hans Urban, head of the solar mounting systems department. Moreover, specialized machinery that rams the foundations into the ground must be transported to the installation site – which is also quite costly. Schletter therefore continues to offer concrete foundations for small ground-mounted systems with a capacity of about 100-kilowatts. The Italian MX-Group from Villasanta, north of Milan, offers a mounting system especially designed for ramming foundations. The assembly tables for two module rows are directly fastened to the ramming profiles lined up in a single row.

Inserting is quicker

When it comes to mounting modules, speed is increasingly important. So when choosing a mounting system, many project planners ensure that module assembly is as simple as possible, especially in autumn, when systems may have installation deadlines of December 31st. “We must be able to put the modules onto the mounting systems quickly,” explains Joachim Lutz of K&S. Therefore, K&S stopped using a third-party system. Installers had to fix four modules each with a plate at the intersection. In particular, aligning the upper modules before they are fastened proved to be too time-consuming in practice. In addition, each installer needed the appropriate torque wrench to fasten bolts to the module clamps.
K&S has now developed its own module mount that works without bolts. Insertion rails replace the module clamps, which seems to save installers a lot of time during assembly. The rails run along the upper and lower edge of the upright modules. The installer pushes the upper edge into the upper rail and then pulls the module into the lower groove. “An additional benefit is that this method better protects the modules from glass breakage,” explains Lutz. Safety latches prevent the modules from slipping. After that, the rails are riveted at the top and bottom.
As the photovoltaics market survey shows, other companies have had the same idea. Quick assembly and a stable structure are only two of the most important aspects when choosing a mounting system. The mounting system should also not be too big, which would be a waste of money, especially in light of rising raw material prices. Yet, finding the right balance between stability and material efficiency is not easy. “We assume that virtually all components are too big, because safety margins have to be added everywhere,” says Martin Zegraj, Goldbeck Solar’s project manager for international ground-mounted systems. Mounting racks for solar farms are just some of the products the company, based outside of Mannheim, Germany, designs and produces. As is customary in the industry, structural engineers calculate wind loads on the mounting racks to comply either with the DIN 1055 standard for flat or monopitch roofs, or with the relevant Eurocode. But strictly speaking, neither the German standard, nor the Eurocode specifically refers to photovoltaic arrays. After all, when the standards were revised, large-scale solar power production was not yet an issue. Every inspection engineer seems to have their own way of dealing with the wind issue.
Based on her own experience, Goldbeck planner Esther Gollwitzer says, “Wind is calculated from zero percent – no wind at all – up to full wind load on all module rows.” She wanted to know exactly how high the load peaks really were. So she got Hans Ruscheweyh, professor at the RWTH in Aachen, to test a model of a ground-mounted system in a wind tunnel. The resulting wind load figures demonstrate that distinguishing between load zones within a solar array can be a good idea. After all, the current standard does not allow for the impact that the rows’ slipstreams have on one another.
The first rows and the peripheral areas are especially exposed because in open spaces the wind’s inflow is parallel and fully hits the installation. “Modules are nothing more than airfoils. In this case, forces similar to those on a sailboat prevail,” comments Ruscheweyh. Particular attention needs to be paid to slopes. A gradient of only ten degrees results in loads at the periphery of around 20 to 30 percent higher than on flat terrain. And he adds, “The greater the distance between the rows, the better the wind can penetrate.”
Goldbeck engineers are now working to streamline the design of most racks used by applying the data evaluated from the wind tunnel. The rack frames on the side will be reinforced according to the findings. Different foundation designs are also possible. “This sort of test provides reliable results and was really worthwhile,” confirms Esther Gollwitzer. The company now believes it can demonstrate a competitive edge when talking to customers. “Going forward, we will be able to work with the static data from the wind tunnel. As a result, we will be able back up our arguments with coherent structural proof,” comments Martin Zegraj.
As the market survey shows, numerous mounting rack manufacturers are assisting with the design, in compliance with at least DIN 1055. However, the survey includes only some of the systems actually installed in Germany. Many clients quickly develop their own systems, either because some details are incorrect, or because they have had bad experiences with suppliers missing deadlines. “Large numbers of modules are integrated in ground-mounted installations within a short time span, which makes it worthwhile in many cases,” says Christian Dürschner of Solarpraxis in Berlin. “Consequently, the range of mounting systems for solar farms in Germany alone is vast.

“I am infuriated,” commented Dirk Morbitzer, “simply infuriated”. It’s been a long time since the managing director of the San Francisco market research company Renewable Analytics experienced anything like it. Solar energy shares continue to decline. For example, on January 13th the shares of Trina Solar were still being traded at 29.50 U.S. dollars; on January 22nd they were worth just under 20.93 dollars. Starting on January 14th, rumors abounded that German Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen planned to reduce subsidies for solar electricity by 16-17 percent. Then January 20th came along. This was the day on which Röttgen announced the end of “excess subsidies” for solar electricity. As of April 1st, an additional 15 percent less in subsidies would be available for roof-mounted arrays, and even 25 percent less for ground-mounted solar installations on farmland as of July 1st.
Chinese manufacturer Trina Solar, however, won't be among the companies that will be hardest hit. Installers and dealers aim to rely increasingly on Asian manufacturers in the future. They hope to compensate for a large part of the reductions in subsidies in Germany with cheaper products. “One or the other Asian supplier has already promised to shoulder a certain share of the expected price reductions,” Morbitzer has learned.
The situation is more difficult for German companies. In particular the small companies that do not have production plants in low wage countries. Morbitzer says, for example, that Q-Cells was lucky to already have a company plant in Malaysia. “I don’t even dare to guess today what effect this will have on the Thalheim location. I assume that it won’t be very favorable.”
And this is true not only for Thalheim, but for Germany as a place to do business in general. Wolfgang Seeliger, an analyst at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW), is co-author of the current LBBW sector study for the solar energy industry. He warns against making the same mistakes with photovoltaics that were committed with consumer electronics in the past: “In a few years we will be complaining like we did with MP3-players, that Germany developed the technology, but the industry is located somewhere else.”
Small trade businesses on the other hand are unable to migrate abroad. Although order books among installers are full up to the end of March, they are currently forced to put off prospective customers for a while for lack of qualified personnel and because of delivery bottlenecks when it comes to the required modules. However, as of April the waiting game will begin should the proposals from the German Ministry for the Environment become a reality.
Many in the industry incredulously ask themselves how something like this could have happened and why resistance in the solar industry has been so weak thus far. The principal reason is that the participants were literally overwhelmed by the announcements from the German Ministry for the Environment. “The Ministry invited the representatives of the photovoltaics industry to so-called hearings,” explains Karl-Heinz Remmers, Chairman of the Board of Solarpraxis in Berlin. “Normally this is followed by a process of opinion-making. New hearings follow. The whole thing drags on over months of coordination and compromise until a result is finally presented. In this case, however, the parties concerned were first heard on January 13th.” And seven days later Röttgen presented his proposals. “It was literally a surprise attack,” concludes Remmers.

Threatening dismissals

Nonetheless, this back room maneuvering was also possible in part because of pre-existing discordance within the solar industry. While some warned of unplanned reductions, others like Solarworld chairman Frank Asbeck rushed to the fore with their own suggestions for a cut in funding. The industry association BSW-Solar also acted in a defensive manner and failed to represent the concerted will of the industry. Even after January 20th, the day of Röttgen’s announcements, no serious protest was to be heard – that is, nothing from the companies listed on the stock market.
“Again and again, we are told in ambiguous terms that we are not affected,” says Remmers, “because of the stock market. You can’t expect a TecDAX company to stand up and say ‘I’m not doing very well, I’m in a panic'. The more public the companies, the less critical are their comments. And politicians naturally think that it will all work out somehow. But in reality it is different.”
In the meantime, small and medium-sized enterprises are expressing their thoughts more clearly. For example, Michael Preißel, Managing Director of MP-TEC, in Eberswalde, is calling for revisions. “The plans of Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen do not take account of the situation in the solar industry, which for its part sought to establish a dialogue with the policymakers.” After the plans became public, MP-TEC surveyed 3,000 partnering contractors throughout Germany. The majority of them criticized above all the short notice of the impending reduction. “We will have to layoff ninety percent of the workforce because we geared our operations towards photovoltaics,” indicated Gotthard Kluge, owner of EKK Elektro-Kluge in Königshain, a small town near the Polish border in the region around Görlitz, which is weak in infrastructure.
The federal states in eastern Germany are particularly affected; resistance here in the meantime has progressed beyond party lines. “The solar industry has not developed enough to be able to bear these serious cuts in promotional funding,” noted Brandenburg’s Minister of Economics, Ralf Christoffers, from the Left Party (Die Linke). “This young industry needs support in order to be able to provide for further dynamic development,” stresses Christoffers. “And it needs to have planning security. A quick reduction in subsidies endangers the industry and puts jobs at risk.” He is now planning to organize opposition together with the Ministers of Economics: Sven Morlok (Free Democratic Party, FDP) from Saxony, Reiner Haseloff (Christian Democratic Union, CDU) from Saxony-Anhalt, and Matthias Machnig (Social Democratic Party of Germany, SPD) from Thuringia. But there is also criticism of the proposals posed by the German Ministry for the Environment at the federal level. “The Federal Ministry for the Environment neither discussed its proposals with the federal government nor with the parliamentary groups of the governing coalition,” contends Michael Kauch, environmental policy spokesman for the Free Democratic Party in parliament.

Greater investor protection

The FDP has yet to adopt a final position. On January 25th, the party itself heard experts in order to form its own opinion. Among other things, criticism is being directed at the short notice on the planned reduction in subsidies that does not allow for planning flexibility and does not sufficiently protect investor confidence. Yet the Federal Ministry for the Environment was conscious of this surprise effect; thus anticipatory responses heading into the summer are hardly possible. The Ministry maintains that after a quick reduction in the subsidies for roof-mounted arrays by April 1st, the market will have sufficient time to lower prices.
One can only hope that all of the market participants will actually succeed in doing so, if funding reductions really take a quick hold. In this case, however, Röttgen’s proposals would have to quickly become a bill in order to pass the Bundestag and Bundesrat – the lower and upper houses of parliament – before April 1st. Time is of the essence.
###MARGINALIE_BEGIN###

###MARGINALIE_END###

“Dozens of projects are currently under construction or in the pipeline in the Czech Republic. Potential investors will find opportunities to enter the market along the entire value creation chain,” says Miriam Neubert, expert for the Czech Republic at Germany Trade and Invest. Arthur Braun, a commercial lawyer at bpv Braun Haskovcova s.r.o., a law firm that has specialized in the Czech photovoltaics market for many years, is equally convinced of the potential of this market. He explains that despite the cuts in the incentive for solar electricity by five percent at the beginning of the year, the feed-in tariffs continue to be highly attractive. “The incentive is quite similar to the Renewable Energy Law in Germany, where the boom was also preceded by a brief quiet period,” says Braun. “According to the law, the feed-in tariffs are currently guaranteed over a period of fifteen to twenty years. From an economic point of view, the production of renewable energy in the Czech Republic is therefore highly attractive.” In the current year, solar systems below a capacity of 30 kilowatts are eligible for a feed-in tariff of 12.25 Czech koruna CZK (47 euro-cents) per kilowatt-hour and larger solar plants for 12.15 CZK (46 euro-cents). Green bonuses arrive at 11.28 CZK (43 euro-cents) and 11.18 CZK (42 euro-cents), respectively.
Even though the first incentive, which was introduced in 2002, had already turned the Czech Republic into a guiding beacon among the nations of Eastern European, a system convincing to both private and institutional investors from the domestic and international markets did not emerge until the Regulatory Authority in Prague adjusted the incentive in 2008. “With the extension of the feed-in tariffs, the Czech market has become immensely attractive for system operators as well as manufacturers,” says Rudolf Schmidt, Sales Director for Central and South-Eastern Europe at Schott Austria GmbH in Vienna. Germany-based Schott Solar, which increased its Czech production capacities to 200 megawatts in 2008, continues to be one of the major players on the Czech market, followed by Japan-based Kyocera Solar Europe.

Decreasing feed-in tariffs

When the conservative-green coalition under Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek left office in spring last year, the Czech solar sky began to see the first cloudy days. With the introduction of an interim government that is expected to be in office until the upcoming elections in spring, the solar sector’s sunny prospects are darkening. According to TomᚠBartovský, spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MPO), the current incentive no longer safeguards the market participants on a governmental basis. Alluding to the falling module prices, Bartovský says that the strategy tries to secure returns without paying attention to the market situation. Presently, the feed-in tariffs for solar electricity are determined every year in November by the Energy Regulatory Authority (ERÚ) and cannot be lowered by more than five percent against the previous year. The aim of this rule is to provide planning security for projects that require a lot of lead time. “But the situation could soon change,” says Arthur Braun. Flanked by an enormous market campaign, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the ERÚ presented a proposal for revising the Czech energy policy that does away with the five percent limit for systems where amortization can be expected within a timeframe of eleven years. ERÚ would in these cases have discretionary power to determine prices at levels below five percent. The aim of the proposal is to eliminate the discrepancy in the purchase prices for electricity from different renewable energy sources. In the current scheme, wind energy, for example, receives only 2.34 CZK per kilowatt-hour. According to Bartovský, the photovoltaics sector has meanwhile developed into a highly lucrative business area, which makes the current form of state subsidies unnecessary.
“The government approved the proposal on November 16th, 2009,” Braun explains. “Only photovoltaic systems connected to the grid after January 1, 2011 will be affected, which eliminates the worst fears of the sector. However, projects connected to the grid at a later point in time still confront significant planning insecurities, because the feed-in tariff for these systems is not expected to be published before November 2010. Taking into account the planning, licensing and construction lead times, there is a considerable risk involved for the investor.”
In view of such scenarios, one can understand that the market participants will do their best to connect their projects to the Czech grid before the end of the year. “Neither the MPO nor the country’s major utilities are particularly in favor of renewable energies,” says Braun, but he adds that even the former government would have approved of the legal changes. “We are observing an enormous photovoltaics boom that even exceeds the experiences in Germany. If we follow the highway from the German border into Prague, there is one large-scale system after the other.”
No doubt, the promotion of photovoltaics has simply become too expansive for the government. In the opinion of Arthur Braun, a degression of fifteen percent would be realistic for 2011. “The Czech market will not cease to exist and a Spanish disaster is certainly not dooming. Of course, the market will also continue to be attractive as prices drop. But the times of the gold rush are coming to an end.” According to an estimation of the Czech Photovoltaics Association, the installed capacities had already reached 200 megawatts by the end of last year. In comparison, a volume of 54.29 megawatts had been installed in the country at the end of 2008.

One more gold rush year

In the current year, the market participants will therefore continue to benefit from the favorable conditions. Projects with a capacity below ten megawatts particularly dominated the market at the beginning of the boom.
One example is the photovoltaics company Alt Energie. As part of the Czech S&M CZ, the company was able to start the construction of the first solar power plant in Rozstani. The initial capacity of the plant will be in the two megawatts range, and later be upgraded to eight megawatts. The system integrator, Photon Energy a.s. of Prague, was also able to announce the completion of four new grid-connected solar power plants in the Czech Republic at the end of last year with a total capacity of 2.55 megawatts. Germany-based project company Antaris Solar finally connected its second solar energy system to the Czech power grid in November 2009, and now operates at a capacity of one megawatt.
“Meanwhile, there have been numerous reports about open space systems above ten megawatts,” says Miriam Neubert. One such example is the solar plant operated by Alt Energie in Rozstani that will be scaled up to ten megawatts. At the end of 2009, the country’s largest open space system was connected to the grid. The 13.66-megawatt park was constructed by Germany-based S.A.G. Solarstrom AG on a former military base in Stribo, in the Pilsen region. The plant is not only the largest system in the country, but also the largest project so far realized by Solarstrom AG with a total investment of 60 million euros. “We are collaborating with local partners in the Czech Republic that have years of experience with the necessary administrative processes and the local licensing procedures; in this project, for example, we worked hand-in-hand with Solarpower GmbH,” says Karl Kuhlmann, Chairman of S.A.G. Solarstrom AG. “This allows us to achieve high levels of planning security. Besides Germany and Italy, the Czech Republic has become one of the core target markets of our company.”

Ambitious targets

Czech Nobility Solar Projects a.s. is also following ambitious targets with plans to more than double its installed photovoltaic capacities by the end of 2010. “Since 2008, we have been able to realize solar systems in the Czech Republic with a total capacity of 18 megawatts,” says Roman Ko?í, Commercial Manager at Nobility Solar Projects. “In 2010, we will have already reached 40 megawatts. From our perspective, the market will follow a rapid development this year.” Numerous large-scale projects form part of Nobility’s current project portfolio, among them were two 3.2 megawatt systems launched in June and November near Brno, about 200 kilometers south-east of Prague.

The inverter supplier for Nobility’s systems has been Swiss Sputnik Engineering AG, which has already been involved in numerous projects in the country. “The Czech Republic is a key market for us,” says Daniel Freudiger, Sputnik's Sales Director. SMA Solar Technology AG, the world’s largest inverter manufacturer, is also well aware of the increasing influence of the market. In April 2009, the company opened a subsidiary in Prague. “Our local office is currently maintained by seven staff members,” says Jens Krug, Sales Director for SMA in Eastern and Central Europe. He says that the Czech Republic is a very important market, adding, “I expect that a capacity of 400 megawatts of photovoltaic systems could be newly installed in the country in 2010, and that a large share of the inverters for these systems will be supplied by SMA.”

Caution, stumbling blocks

The potential of the Czech market has also been discovered by players from Asia. China-based CNPV Solar Power SA, for example, signed a long-term strategic partnership with the Czech project developer Stand-By Europe in October 2009. According to the two companies, CNVP will supply modules in the range of 100 megawatts for the project company by the end of 2012. At the beginning of the year, the companies announced that Stand-By Europe had already invested 11 million euros to install 3.1 megawatts by the end of 2009: 2.0 megawatts in Kosorin; and 1.1 megawatts in Malsice Cenkov.
“Most of the projects realized in the Czech Republic concern ground-mounted systems,” says Arthur Braun. “Installing larger systems on industrial halls is a more difficult thing to do. Frequently, it is the building owners' banks that are standing in the way. Most of these banks are still unfamiliar with photovoltaic technologies. But it will not be long until these installations will follow,” says the commercial lawyer. “In the Czech Republic, larger solar projects are often financed by foreign banks.”
But even when a creditor has been found, warns Miriam Neubert, “there remain stumbling blocks along the entire value chain – beginning with the acquisition of the property all the way up to when the projects are supposedly ready-to-sign.” She identifies the following aspects that should be taken into account: “Securing the property for acquisition or rent by means of a pre-contract; securing the full access and access rights for the property under consideration; early confirmation of the grid-connection from the relevant grid operator (which usually has to be renewed after six months); and compliance with all the public and legal licensing requirements – which in some cases includes land planning permission as well as a construction and production license.”
According to Neubert, time and administrative efforts in each case should not be underestimated. Under good conditions, a realistic time frame for a solar project is about twelve to fourteen months. “However, if the property concerns farmland that first needs to be taken off the agricultural land funds, and then needs to be redefined, the realization can involve additional time.”

Next candidate: Slovakia

Even though subsidies for solar electricity will be lowered by fifteen percent until 2011, a collapse of the Czech photovoltaics market is an unlikely scenario. “By the year 2020, the share of renewable energy must reach thirteen percent in the Czech Republic pursuant to the binding European Union targets,” says Karl Kuhlmann of S.A.G. Solarstrom AG. “I would therefore say that the incentive will continue after 2011 even though the feed-in tariffs may be somewhat lower.” Of course, the sector will cool down after the gold rush frenzy. But in this phase, the market can be compared to a ship that is navigating from fast currents into quieter waters. Presently, the Czech Republic still stands as a beacon nation for photovoltaics. But if the experts are right, Slovakia is already following up and may well be the next candidate for a photovoltaics boom in Eastern Europe.
###MARGINALIE_BEGIN###

###MARGINALIE_END###

Dear readers,
The announcement of lower feed-in rates for solar power in Germany spoiled many a party for industry representatives at the beginning of the year – for the growth of the world’s biggest photovoltaics market could be stunted, and jobs may be lost, especially for midsize companies. At the same time, opposition to the plans of Norbert Röttgen, Germany’s new Environmental Minister, to cut feed-in rates shows that the battle is not over politically (see page 28). In the past few weeks, thousands of PV professionals have taken to the streets to protest.
But regardless of who wins the political tug-of-war in Germany, the cuts will not put an end to photovoltaics. The industry is simply much too strong; the opportunities that photovoltaics offers for ecological and economic modernization are too obvious. A growing number of countries have come to this realization, the UK being a recent example. Against the opposition of the government, a group of parliamentarians across political parties succeeded in implementing feed-in rates in Britain. On April 1st, solar power from systems up to five megawatts will receive attractive compensation in the amount of 47 euro cents per kilowatt-hour, and future rates will take inflation into account. The Czech Republic has also discovered the opportunities that photovoltaics offers. Their feed-in tariff pays up to 47 euro cents per kilowatt-hour for systems up to 30 kilowatts, while larger systems get 46 cents. While rate cuts have been discussed, current Czech legislation will continue to be very attractive for investments in large arrays for at least the rest of this year, as discussions showed at the PV Power Plants 2010 – EU; organized by Solarpraxis, the conference attracted a large number of attendants to Prague at the end of January (page 20).
The development of lightweight rooftop mounting systems shows how much innovation the industry still has in it. Clever aerodynamic design allows them to outwit the wind; modules stay on flat roofs without damaging the roof membrane, even though they have little ballast. These state-of-the-art products open up a new opportunity for solar power production: commercial roofs with little additional load-bearing capacity. Around a dozen manufacturers now offer such products, and the market continues to grow quickly (page 62).
pv magazine is also growing, restructuring its content and offering new services. One step in that direction is the integration of the Politics & Society section into the Markets & Trends section of this issue. In doing so, we are not subsuming politics under market issues; rather, we aim to shed more light on the market relevance of political events. In addition, our subscribers can receive or download EuPD Research’s new study “Measuring the Output and Yield of Solar Modules and Module Tests” for free (see page 52).
I hope you enjoy reading this new issue.
Hans-Christoph Neidlein
Editor in chief